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World economy 10th January 2020

The Global 5G Roll-Out is a Geopolitical Turning Point

Joanna Eva (European Views) | For the best part of two years, wireless carriers in the US and Europe have been hailing the imminent onset of 5G technology. In Europe, Switzerland, Spain and the UK have already adopted commercial 5G coverage in major cities. Beyond the obvious benefits of the new technology, however, most consumers remain wilfully ignorant to the geopolitical realities of the ongoing roll-out; 2020 presents nothing less than an existential crossroads for democracies around the world.

World economy 9th January 2020

Oil: Political markets have short legs

Norbert Rücker (Julius Baer) | Oil prices sold off more than 4% as concerns about supply risks in the Middle East calmed. The latest actions and reactions show that both opponents, the United States and Iran, are shying away from a military escalation out of fear of its potential economic costs. We stick to our Neutral view on oil and see oil prices lower towards year end. Demand should remain soft amidst weak growth, while supplies increase from Canada to the North Sea.

World economy 9th January 2020

US is more relaxed about oil spike than Europe – which helps explain differences over Iran

Mueid Al Raee (The Conversation) |Whether or not the Americans actually want higher oil prices, there are certainly good economic reasons why they probably won’t mind them. Deepening the chaos that started with the US withdrawing from the West’s nuclear deal with Iranis an “easy” way to achieve higher oil prices while meeting other strategic objectives. Yet how the Europeans, China and Russia respond will also determine the global flow of oil from Iran and Iraq.

Markets, Opinion, World economy 7th January 2020

Oil: 2020 Spells Geopolitics For Energy

Norbert Rücker (Julius Baer) | The oil market is off to a rocky start as the tensions between the United States and Iran escalate. The situation brings lots of uncertainty and geopolitical tea-leaf reading on reactions. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a very unlikely event, the deterioration in Iraq bears supply risks. Geopolitics tend to be a temporary force on oil markets and we believe this time is no different. We raise our near-term forecast to USD 65 per barrel, and maintain a Neutral view on oil.

Markets, World economy 7th January 2020

China Proposes Major Antitrust Law Overhaul, Curbing Internet Titans

Dave Yin (Caixin) | China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.China is making major revisions to its antitrust law for the first time in more than 11 years to give it more teeth while reining in the dominance of the country’s internet goliaths.

World economy 3rd January 2020

Ecuador Leaves The OPEC To Avoid Production Cuts

The decision was announced last October and came into effect in the new year. The Government of Lenín Moreno decided to leave the cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, to escape the procuction cuts, with which the organization intends to boost oil prices. Oil is the second largest source of income for Ecuador’s coffers.

World politics 2nd January 2020

Japan: Execution a shameful stain on human rights record of Olympic hosts

Wei Wei, a 40-year-old Chinese national, was executed on Thursday morning at Fukuoka Prison. He had been convicted of the murder of a family of four in Fukuoka, committed with two other students of Chinese origin. Japan is one of a handful of countries that has persistently executed over the past few years.

EM debt is a good asset class to weather slowing global growth

Equity Reports, Markets, Opinion, World economy 2nd January 2020

Emerging Markets Debt Is A Good Asset Class To Weather Slowing Global Growth

Alejandro Arevalo (Jupiter’s Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets) | One might think that emerging market debt has had difficult year, but it’s been quite the opposite. At the time of writing, the major EM hard currency indices have all returned more than 11% year to date.

Opinion, World economy 2nd January 2020

Climate Change: One Step Forward, While Standing Still

Arek Sinanian | What will the outcome be of the latest UN Climate Change Conference in Madrid? Have you ever tried walking on a travellator? You know, those moving platforms at airports that help you get to your destination when you are in a hurry or tired, or have a lot of baggage to carry. This is the image I have of the last few Conferences of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations.

Markets, World economy 1st January 2020

Bypassing Obstacles For 2020

José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | The end of the year has served to dismiss some of the doubts that have distorted the decisions of the economic agents during the last months, ballasting the growth rates of the activity. Visibility has improved in the short term, yet uncertainty is here to stay

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