Markus Allenspach (Head Fixed Income Research, Julius Baer) | Investors will recall that the Fed is refinancing existing loans to companies only with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 6x and new loans with a ratio below 4x. In other words, the Fed is not lending to companies that were over-indebted prior to the Covid-19 crisis.
Soros was speaking in an interview entitled The Crisis of a Lifetime with the journalist and author Gregor Peter Schmidtz, published by Project Syndicate. He argues that “Donald Trump would like to be a dictator” but cannot because there is a constitution in the United states that people still respect though “that doesn’t mean he will not try”. “I put my faith in Trump to destroy himself, and he has exceeded my wildest expectations”.
Fidelity | Over 100 million travellers hit the Chinese roads during the five-day May Day holiday, the first major test for domestic tourism demand since the Covid-19 containment measures began to be lifted. International travel remains out of the question, but clear signs of a gradual recovery in Chinese domestic tourism could give other countries a boost in confidence as they look to the future.
Simon Peters (eToro) | This week, the Bitcoin block reward halving will happen, possibly as early as today. We don’t know the exact date and time as it happens automatically after 210,000 blocks are mined rather than a defined date and time, but if you want a New Year’s Eve style countdown, check out Bitcoinblockhalf.com I’ve covered the technical details of halving in previous newsletters, so I won’t go over them again. The important thing to note is that the block reward to miners will halve from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, hence the name of the event.
Janwillem Acket (Julius Baer) | After initial jobless claims topped 33 million since 12 March, US labour market statistics for April showed massive job losses. As was to be expected, the usually cyclically robust services were a major source for redundancies, because they particularly suffered from the lockdown measures. However, there are reasons to expect that April 2020 could mark a low as fiscal and monetary incentives, next to a relaxation of the lockdowns, are prone to start a rehiring wave again.
Anthony Pettinari (Citi GPS) | While we can’t rule out that funding for infrastructure will be included in a new package, it looks far more likely that any package that can be agreed on by the Administrationand Congress will include more money for small businesses, the unemployed, hospitals/health care, and possibly State/Local governments. The good news though is that we expect a post-election comprehensive infrastructure bill that could help propel beaten down state and local economies.
Patrik Lang, Head Equities (Julius Baer) | We have downgraded eurozone equities to Underweight given slower earnings recovery expectations, increasing political risk and unfavourable sector exposure. In our view, relative valuations do not fully reflect these negatives. On the other hand, we have upgraded US equities, which should benefit from a relatively fast post-Covid-19 recovery.
Degussa | Most people these days think inflation is a rise in consumer goods prices of more than 2 per cent per year – a result of what mainstream economics has been teaching generations of students all around the world. However, equating inflation with changes in consumer goods prices is inadequate and highly deceptive for various reasons.
Julius Baer | The narrative of the oil market story is changing. The mood brightens as fears about an overflowing oil market calm and hopes about a swifter-than-expected demand rebound grow. This sentiment factor likely continues to fuel the oil price bounce in the very near term, amplified by investors chasing the market bottom. We stick to our Constructive view and long position in nearby futures contracts.
Markus Allenspach, Head Fixed Income Research, Julius Baer | At this stage, the corporate bond market needs support from the Federal Reserve to digest the negative news flow, such as the net tightening of lending standards for commercial and industrial loans in the senior loan officers’ survey published yesterday or the numerous cyclical data showing the depth of the contraction in the current quarter.