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China will allow foreign investors national treatment

World economy 11th July 2018

China Is Further Opening Up To Foreign Investors

Caixin | The country’s National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Commerce, announced at the end of June a shortened “negative list” for foreign investors, which will come into effect on July 28. The newly shortened list removes restrictions on entrance to primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, and includes 22 opening-up measures in important areas, including finance, transportation and logistics, trade circulation, professional services, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, natural resources and agriculture.

The contribution of human capital to US growth could be more marginal in the next years for the retirement of the baby boomers

World economy 10th July 2018

Human Capital Contributed Around 3% To US GDP Growth Thanks To Baby Boomers

Caixabank Research consider recent trends in human capital and the outlook for the future. The quality of the US workforce has undergone a remarkable transformation: over the past 70 years, the level of training has consistently improved. However, several studies also indicate that over the next few years, the contribution of human capital to growth could be more marginal. One of the main reasons for this is the retirement of the baby boomers.

oilprices

World economy 6th July 2018

What’s Behind The Rise In The Oil Price?

The oil price has risen 70% in the last 12 months, from 45$/ barrel for Brent in June 2017 to around 80$ in May 2018. Thus, after three years of low prices, crude has returned to levels not seen since the end of 2014. What are the forces behind this increase in oil price? Could it damage the world economy?

There is not US salaries inflation

World economy 2nd July 2018

US Salaries Save Productivity

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | The first economy in the world has been creating net employment without interruption for seven years and eight months. For now everything indicates it will continue to do so. And best of all: there is no wage inflation. In other words, it is impossible to understand what is happening in the US, although that does not prevent various theories being advanced to explain the situation.

Mexico's elections to be held on 1 July

World politics 30th June 2018

Mexico’s Elections: The Implications Of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador Becoming Next Leader

Mexicans go to the polls on 1 July. Some 3,400 elected positions are at stake (including the President, deputies senators, and gubernatorial elections), potentially reshaping the country’s political landscape.  AXA IM analysts expect that Andrès Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO, will be victorious and become the next President and that his coalition Called MORENA) will obtain a small majority in both chambers of the Congress.

Interest rates

World economy 28th June 2018

Interest Rates As Indicators Of A Change Of Cycle

Miguel Navascués | For some months we have been looking with concern at the spread of interest rates of US 10 minus 2 year bonds as an indicator of an ever closer recession. Indeed, this indicator has been moving towards zero, and if it goes negative – which seems to be the trend- it would signal the threshold of a recession. But I don’t think it is such a precise indicator.