Neil Gandal and Tyler Moore via The Conversation | Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have grown in popularity in large part because they can be bought and sold without a government or other third party overseeing everything. But there’s a flipside: Unlike in markets for other assets such as stocks or bonds, it makes it much harder to uncover price manipulation and fraud.
Miguel Navascués | For some months we have been looking with concern at the spread of interest rates of US 10 minus 2 year bonds as an indicator of an ever closer recession. Indeed, this indicator has been moving towards zero, and if it goes negative – which seems to be the trend- it would signal the threshold of a recession. But I don’t think it is such a precise indicator.
Lu Ming via Caixin | Amid the recent fierce trade disputes between China and the U.S., many analysts have failed to appreciate China’s own problems. In fact, there are two interrelated problems: one is the trade imbalance between China and the U.S.; the other is the domestic imbalance of China’s economy.
Trump’s policies are boosting inflation, stimulating asset values, depreciating debt, increasing growth prospects and decreasing democrat chances at the forthcoming polls.
Huan Guocang via Caixin | What did Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump achieve during their meeting in Singapore last week? Judging by the media response to the summit, the two made few breakthroughs and neither stepped out of his expected role.
For both China and the US, government policy is more important than monetary policy right now. “Interesting that for China, many of its perceived problems are being dealt with through greater use of technology”, explains Mark Tinker, Head of Framlington Equities Asia at AXA IM.
The first half of 2018 has witnessed a dip in global IPO activity as a result of lower capital raising in Asia Pacific and EMEA, according to the latest research from Baker McKenzie. Worries around geopolitics weighed on investors’ minds. However, cross-border deals totalled over $16.6 Bn. The number of deals climbed, up 18% to 85.
According to Julius Baer economists, “despite the perceived escalation of US tariffs quarrels being close to a trade war, they remain tit-for-tat trade disputes.” The missing economic rationale behind the tariffs supports their notion of a pure domestic motivation for the disputes.
“The JPY’s refusal to heed the BOJ’s quest for higher inflation — a consequence of its role as a funding vehicle in the carry trade—has served up a firm reminder of the immense challenges still facing Shinzo Abe’s Japan,” says BNY Mellon senior currency strategist Neil Mellor.