Intermoney | Retail sales stagnated in December, compared to the 0.4% increase we could have expected and the 0.6% in November. It should be noted that at the start of the Christmas season, sales were brought forward to take advantage of some of the discounts at the end of November, which we believe led to greater weakness in the last month of the year. Monthly sales increased in only five…
Bankinter | The CPI in China moderates to 0.2% year-on-year against 0.4% expected and 0.8% previously, while Industrial Prices accelerated to negative 1.4% against -1.5% expected and -1.9% previously. Analysis team’s view: Negative impact. Inflation moderates more than expected, although it is distorted by a base effect comparing January 2025, when Chinese New Year was celebrated, versus January 2026, when there was no such holiday as this year it begins…
CdM | US President Donald Trump believes that Kevin Warsh, his nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), can boost the country’s economy to grow at a rate of 15%. He made this statement in an interview on Fox Business, in which he made it clear that if Warsh ‘does the job he is capable of doing,’ the US ‘can grow at 15%, I think even more.’ ‘I think…
Norbolsa | According to a report published by a technology systems provider, US ports handled 6.8% less container imports in January than last year. The figures were significantly impacted by the contraction in imports from China (-22.7%) and distorted by frontloading in the accumulation of business inventories in the face of the threat of tariffs. Frontloading is expected to continue distorting the figures during the first half of 2026.
Alicia Gª Herrero (Natixis) | At the Lower House election on February 8th, Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a historical victory with 316 seats, which brings her well above the absolute majority. With the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) gaining 36 seats, the LDP-led ruling coalition obtained 75% of total seats at the Lower House. These results should bring higher political stability, as the LDP was in coalition before the…
Renta 4 | We have finally received confirmation from Trump that Kevin Warsh will replace Powell at the helm of the Fed starting next May, something that the market had already been anticipating since Thursday afternoon. For his confirmation, approval by the Senate Banking Committee and then by the Senate itself is required. We recall that Republican Tillis, of the Banking Committee, said he would not approve any candidate until…
Bankinter | The Fed kept its benchmark interest rates (Fed Funds) in the 3.50%/3.75% range, in line with expectations. They will let ‘the data speak for itself’. The decision was not unanimous, with two votes in favour of cutting -25bp (Miran and Waller). Powell highlighted the improvement in growth expectations to ‘solid’ from “moderate” in his previous statement in December and, with regard to the unemployment rate, showed ‘signs of…
Alphavalue/Divacons | President Donald Trump has downplayed the recent volatility of the dollar, which has led the US currency to its lowest levels against the euro since 2021. This weakness in the ‘greenback’ has simultaneously boosted the price of safe-haven assets, with gold reaching historic highs in response to the uncertainty generated by White House policy and growing pressure from the Administration on the Federal Reserve. The dollar falls to…
Link Securities | According to Reuters, India and the European Union (EU) announced yesterday that they have reached a trade agreement that will drastically reduce tariffs on most products, with the aim of boosting bilateral trade. The agreement is expected to double EU exports to India by 2032, eliminating or reducing tariffs on 96.6% of the value of traded goods, which will save European companies €4 billion in tariffs, according…
Intermoney |We have also seen a significant upturn in natural gas prices in recent days. As a result of the winter storm currently affecting the US, Henry Hub natural gas prices closed at $6.68, having risen 27% in a single day and breaking through the $6 barrier for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and energy prices skyrocketed. Although we consider these fluctuations to be too aggressive,…