Alphavalue/ Divacons | Donald Trump has introduced a £100,000 fee for new H-1B visa applications, which are the visas used by tech companies to recruit talent from countries such as India and China. The White House clarified that it will only apply to new applicants, not renewals, and that it will be a one-time payment, not an annual one. This dispelled doubts among companies. Even so, it is a measure…
Bankinter | The Empire State manufacturing activity index disappointed in September, entering negative territory. The indicator stood at -8.7 versus 5.0 expected and 11.9 previously. Analysis team’s view: The indicator, which surveys nearly 200 executives in the manufacturing industry in New York State, weakened due to a significant drop in demand. The components of New Orders (negative 19.6 versus 15.4 previously) and Shipments (negative 17.3 versus 12.2 previously) fell the…
Link Securities | According to Bloomberg and Reuters, the US and China concluded talks in Madrid, establishing a framework agreement on the ownership of TikTok. US President Donald Trump said the meeting went well and that he will speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the agreement could preserve Chinese characteristics while addressing US national security concerns. The Chinese news agency Xinhua…
Norbolsa | August macro data once again show signs of weakness in the Chinese economy, with the lowest growth figures of the year, which has reignited expectations of stimulus measures. Consumption is growing less than expected (retail sales up 3.4% against 3.8% estimated), as are industrial production (up 5.2% against 5.6%) and investment (0.5% against 1.5%). Residential investment continues to fall at a rate of 7%. However, it is expected…
Intermoney | The US labour market took centre stage again on Tuesday with the release of the annual revision of payrolls created through March of this year. Given the unreliability of the data in recent months, the revision provides a clearer picture of the labour market. The new figures showed a downward revision of a record 911,000, suggesting that job creation was much less robust in the year to March…
Alphavalue / Divacons | The year-on-year inflation rate for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development stood at 4.1% in July, representing a decrease of one tenth of a percentage point compared to June. Since March 2025, inflation in the group has ranged between 4% and 4.2%. According to the think tank, headline inflation rose in ten member countries, while 12 recorded declines, with falls of more than 0.5 percentage…
Intermoney | Payrolls grew by only 22,000 (well below the 75,000 expected by consensus) compared to 79,000 in July. Although there were upward revisions in the previous two months of 29,000, this barely masked the fragility we have seen in recent months. In fact, average employment growth over the last three months is less than 30,000. Before going into detail, it should be noted that the response rate was abnormally…
Intermoney | Trade balance data showed that the US trade deficit widened significantly in July to $78.3 billion (from $59 billion in June), exceeding estimates and due to a sharp increase in imports before reciprocal tariffs came into effect for a number of countries that had not yet reached trade agreements. Imports rose 5.9% to $358.8 billion, boosted by imports of goods, which rose 6.9%. Not only did we see…
Singular Bank | According to the ADP report, job creation in the US private sector was limited to 54,000 jobs in August (compared to 106,000 in July), falling short of the consensus estimate of analysts (73,000 jobs). This data once again reflects the signs of deterioration in the labour market, ahead of today’s non-farm payrolls report, and supports the Fed’s expected cut in official interest rates at its meeting this…
Bankinter | The US Private Consumption Deflator (PCE) was in line with expectations in July: up 2.6% versus 2.6% previously. The core rate rose to 2.9% versus 2.9% estimated and 2.8% previously. Analysis team’s view: Figures in line with expectations. The PCE stabilised after rebounding in May and June. This inflation, together with weak labour market data in recent months, supports our view of a further rate cut of 25…