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World economy 12th December 2013

U.S.: Stumbling Toward Fiscal Stability

LONDON | By Barry Knapp at Barclays | Tuesday night’s two-year budget agreement between the heads of the House and Senate Budget Committees, Paul Ryan and Patty Murray, looks to be the culmination of a difficult process that has succeeded in stabilizing the US federal government fiscal position for the investable horizon. We have maintained that, since 2010, public policy uncertainty – stemming in part from government spending reaching a post-WWII high, and the associated budget deficit –has helped weaken business confidence and investment.

US Labor Market

World economy 12th December 2013

The US labor market: Myth and reality

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | For all the talk about the jobless recovery, Barack Obama has, in less than 5 years, created three times more jobs than George W. Bush did in eight years. Under the current president’s tenure, 3,140,000 jobs have been added to the US economy. It is not a bad record of achievement, at least taking into account that, in January 2009—when Obama moved to the White House–, the United States destroyed 600,000 jobs, its worst number in 34 years. Talk about legacies.

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World economy 11th December 2013

The Japan macro trade: Watch Japanese investors in 2014

LONDON | By Jim McCormick, Anando Maitra and Sree Kochugovindan at Barclays | Nearly a year ago to the day, the LDP and its leader, Shinzo Abe, won a landslide victory in the Japanese elections. Since then, it has been an extraordinary twelve months for Japan. GDP growth is set to be the highest of all major economies, by a good margin. Inflation and inflation expectations are at the highest levels in some time. The equity market has surged 75% since the election, and the trade-weighted yen has fallen 30%.

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World economy 10th December 2013

Global recovery: The clock is ticking for risk assets

LONDON | Barclays analysts | The global recovery remained modest in 2013, inflation was somewhat lower than expected, and monetary policy in the developed countries became even more supportive. While these fundamentals would normally suggest that bonds would outperform stocks, the opposite occurred, and in a very big way: bond prices plunged and equity prices soared.

Bitcoin That New Toy for Dummies

World economy 9th December 2013

Bitcoin, The New Toy for Dummies

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Bitcoin is increasingly present everywhere: newspapers, books, all over the Internet… and everybody seems to be infatuated with this new currency. However, it isn’t as fabulous as they make us think. It’s tricky and it could endanger even more the already damaged global economies.

China Courting Financial Innovation

World economy 9th December 2013

China: Courting Financial Innovation

BEIJING | By Wang Yong at Caixin | In China, the law on illegal fundraising keeps public deposits from fleeing their arranged marriage with state-owned banks, stifling fresh ideas in finance.

China's biggest jeweler sees gold in the masses

World economy 6th December 2013

China’s biggest jeweler sees gold in the masses

HONG KONG | By Reuters | The world’s most valuable jewellery retailer Chow Tai Fook, which counts Cartier and Tiffany & Co as competitors, is on a quest to conquer the hearts of China’s future big spenders. Its weapons of choice: Hello Kitty and Winnie the Pooh.

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World economy 6th December 2013

Federalism: Not a United States of Europe, please!

AMSTERDAM | By at NRC Handelsblad via Presseurop | If the EU is to continue to exist, then its representatives will have to be clear about their ultimate objective. This should not be a federation of states, but a Union which sets its sights on further horizons, defends its diversity, puts an end to its expansion and establishes a legal basis for further integration, says academic Paul Scheffer writes. Excerpts.