CdM | Year-on-year headline inflation in the OECD, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 3.9% in November 2025, from 4.2% in September 2025, the closest month with complete CPI data for all OECD countries. Food inflation and core inflation (inflation excluding food and energy) in the OECD fell by 1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, both reaching 4%. In contrast, energy inflation rose to 3.5% from…
Singular Bank | According to the BEA, in October, US exports rebounded by 2.6% month-on-month compared to the previous month. At the same time, imports fell significantly by 3.2%. Year-on-year, exports grew by 12% and imports fell by 3.6%. Given this development, the US trade deficit fell by 39.0% compared to September to $29.4 billion (versus $48.1 billion in September), representing its lowest level since 2009. In October, the largest…
Link Securities | According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-on-year in December, up from 0.7% the previous month, its highest rate since February 2023, although slightly below the 0.9% rebound expected by the consensus of analysts. Inflation rose for the third consecutive month, with food prices rising at their fastest year-on-year rate in 14 months (1.1% versus 0.2% in November),…
Norbolsa | The price of Brent has fallen 1.3% in two sessions and dropped below $60/b after Trump announced his plan to sell 30-50 million barrels of blocked Venezuelan oil to the US ($2.8 billion). On the other hand, it is likely that Trump will meet with American oil companies on Friday to discuss entry and investment in Venezuela. While the market believes that reviving the sector in Venezuela will…
Bankinter | Fed minutes reflected a wide division among board members. They correspond to the meeting held on 9-10 December and acknowledge a wide-ranging internal debate regarding the decision to cut rates. A few board members who had supported the cut acknowledged that they could also have supported the option of maintaining rates, given the various risks facing the economy. Specifically, six of them could have opposed the cut, although…
Bankinter | Commercial banks have kept one-year and five-year rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive month at 3.0%, in line with consensus expectations. These rates are used as a benchmark for short-term corporate loans. Five-year rates remain at 3.50%, also in line with estimates. These five-year rates are the benchmark for mortgage loans. The last time cuts were made was in May. Analysis team’s view: The deterioration of the economy…
Link Securities | The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee approved by five votes to four a quarter-point cut in its benchmark interest rate to 3.75%, the first cut since last August. The four members who voted against the move argued for keeping rates unchanged. On this occasion, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey supported the decision to cut rates. The BoE’s benchmark rate is now at its lowest level since…
Bankinter | Non-farm payrolls (November) came in higher than expected at 65k versus 50k expected. Private payrolls surprised on the upside, reaching 64k versus 50k. However, October figures reflected notable weakness in the labour market, with non-farm payrolls down by 105k. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly by two tenths of a percentage point to 4.6% (versus 4.5% expected and 4.4% previously), as a result of a proportionally higher increase in…
Bankinter | The Tankan index, which measures the confidence of large manufacturing companies, improves to 15 points in Q4 2025 (compared to the expected 15 and the previous 14). In the case of Services, it fell slightly to 34 points, in line with expectations (compared to 35 expected and 34 previously). Small manufacturing companies also improved somewhat compared to the previous quarter and recorded better-than-expected figures (6 compared to 2…
Link Securities | According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in China grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November (2.9% in October), the lowest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. The reading was below the 2.9% expected by the FactSet analyst consensus. There was a sharp 19.4% drop in sales of household appliances during the month. Car sales also declined, and sales of essential goods fell slightly. In…