Renta 4 : Stock markets open lower again (Eurostoxx -0.3%, S&P flat), after negative closes in the US and Asia. As for central banks, Norway’s central bank unanimously raised rates by +25 bps, in line with expectations, to 4%, and anticipated more hikes in September, arguing that inflation is still not under control. A monetary policy direction that contrasts with that of other countries where they have already started to…
Renta 4| New day with European futures lower at the open (Eurostoxx 50 -0.6%, S&P flat) after a negative close in the US at the lows and with the US IRR 10 hitting the highest since October at 4.26%, and rising today +4 bps to 4.31%, which is an increase of c.+15 bps since Friday. Noteworthy is the publication of the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting where there is…
Norbolsa| The European natural gas futures market rallied for the second time in less than a week, with the market becoming increasingly stressed by the possibility of strikes in Australia at companies that operate almost 10% of global LNG. Although Europe is not a regular buyer of LNG, the shock comes from competition with Asia for supplies and with the winter season approaching.
Bankinter: July CPI slows down sharply, although core is still holding at 6.9% – CPI (July): +6.8% year-on-year vs. +6.7% expected +7.9% previously. Over the month: -0.4% month-on-month vs. -0.5% expected and +0.1% previous. Underlying: +6.9% year-on-year vs. +6.8% expected and +6.9% previously. Assessment: Inflation slowed significantly in July, in the first month with month-on-month falls in price levels since January. Of note are the falls in Housing (-4.1% month-on-month)…
Bankinter| University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (preliminary data for August) came out in line with expectations (71.2 points vs. 71.2 expected vs. 71.6 before). Assessment: This is good news because Consumption is resisting inflation and rate hikes (+300 bps in 12 months to 5.25/5.50%). The strength of the labour market, where the Unemployment Rate is close to 40-year lows, and the good momentum in Services (PMI at 52.3 vs. ISM…
Link Securities | The EFE news agency reported that, in its monthly report on the world oil market, published on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global demand for crude oil reached a record 102 million barrels per day (mbd) in June. Last month demand fell slightly to 100.9 mbd. However, the IEA believes that another record could be seen in August. This higher demand is encouraged by…
Bankinter| China’s largest developer, Country Garden, may have defaulted on two bonds over the weekend. Its size is four times that of Evergrande. On the other hand, Chinese asset manager Zhongrong International may not have repaid capital and coupons on some of its real estate vehicles. Assessment: Bad news, which once again puts the Chinese real estate sector in check and is a consequence of the government’s scant measures to…
Bankinter: GDP (year-on-year) rises +0.4% vs +0.2% estimated and previous. Quarter-on-quarter +0.2% vs 0% estimated and +0.1% previous. Assessment: GDP growth surprises positively, although it is mainly driven by the higher contribution of Public Spending (+3.1% against – 1.8% previously). There is also a reactivation of Private Consumption (+0.7% against 0% estimated and previous), which is also reflected in Imports (+1.0% against -3.8% previous). Exports fall, but with less intensity…
BancaMarch| US President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order that effectively limits US investment in several Chinese tech firms. According to Biden, China’s strategy facilitates and supports “advances in sensitive technologies and products that are critical to the military, intelligence, surveillance or cyber capabilities of other countries”. The ban is limited to three key sectors of the Asian giant: semiconductors, quantum computing and artificial intelligence. At the same…
Bankinter: CPI (July):-0.3% year-on-year vs. -0.4% expected vs +0.0% previous. (ii) Industrial Prices: -4.4% year-on-year vs. -4.0% expected vs -5.4% previous. Assessment: Both CPI and industrial prices mark deflation. The CPI fell -0.3% year-on-year, the first negative reading since February 2021, while industrial prices fell for the tenth consecutive month. This is the first time since November 2020 that both indicators have been negative. After a positive post-pandemic start in…