In the World

China stocks markets

The dual objective of China’s competition quest: mitigating structural deceleration and great power rivalry

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The Chinese economy has been decelerating for over a decade and will likely continue to do so, given the structural forces pushing it in this direction, such as an increasingly low return on assets but also aging. China’s single ‘silver bullet’ to mitigate such structural deceleration is innovation. To counter the downward pressures to development, and to increase domestic productivity, the central government is doubling…


eeuu madeinCM

US GDP rises 1.6% between January and March, boosted by services consumption

Intermoney| As expected, imports subtracted from GDP, which was expected given the trade deficit. The trade drag took 0.86 p.p. off the growth rate. Paradoxically, strong imports reflect solid consumer demand, but they also detract from overall GDP growth. That is the trade-off. Net exports only grew by +0.9% quarter-on-quarter, which shows that a strong dollar seems to put some pressure on exports. Also note that inventories built up at…


1008p2 Wall Street sign Main i

Thin air ahead for the equity markets

Bert Flossbach (Flossbach von Storch) | The AI boom has also had an impact on the equity markets, and not just on the supposedly immediate winners. The valuation of US equities, which make up a good two-thirds of the MSCI World Index, has recently risen further and, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of 23.4, has reached an above-average level, even in an historical context. It is now common knowledge…


meta marcas

Meta achieves $12.369bn BNA, ad revenue rises, but guidance looks sluggish

Bankinter: 1Q2024 results good, but guidance weak. The stock falls 15% in the aftermarket. Key figures vs. consensus (Bloomberg): Revenues $36.455M (up 27% year-on-year) vs. $36.125M consensus estimate and $34.500M/$37.000M by the Company, EBIT $13.818M (up 91%) vs. $13.400M and EBITDA $12.369M (up 117%) vs. $12.070M estimate. Daily active users reached 3,240M (up 7% year-on-year) vs. 3,190M in the previous quarter and 2,114M estimated. Average revenue per ad up 6%…


vivienda venta eeuu

Housing sector still a headache for Fed: new home sales rebound

Intermoney | New home sales rebounded in March to 693,000, well above the 668,000 expected, but coming on the back of a downward revision of February sales by -25,000 (662,000). The point is that an acceleration was seen in quarterly terms with a March average of 667,000. For the moment, the housing sector looks set to remain a headache for the Federal Reserve. It is true that the supply of…


japan death.penalty

BoJ preview: a still negative neutral rate calling for pause notwithstanding weak Yen

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | After the Bank of Japan (BoJ) terminated the key non-conventional monetary policy tools in March, namely the negative policy rate and the yield curve control (YCC), evidence on a strengthening virtuous circle between inflation and wages has been limited. However, real wages -which fell by -1.8% year-on-year in February – are unlikely to turn positive soon. Furthermore, services inflation excluding imputed rent softened to +2.9%…


mercados globalCM 1

US and China continue to dominate global foreign direct investment flows

Global economyCapital Group| It seems that foreign investment patterns have yet to show a decisive successor to China. Globally, foreign direct investment (FDI) as a percentage of GDP peaked around the time of the financial crisis: investment in China stagnated slightly earlier, in the early 2000s, just after its accession to the World Trade Organisation and following rapid inflows into the manufacturing sector. In absolute terms, however, the United States…


fed enero 2024

Fed members talk of “patience”, first cut not likely until end of year or even 2025

Banc March: Round of statements from Fed members, where the word “patience” has been recurrent in their speeches and they delay the first cut to the end of the year and even 2025. The Atlanta Fed president believes that inflation is too high and does not consider it appropriate to lower the cost of money until the end of the year. He also said he was open to raising rates…


IMF outlook

IMF revises growth projections upwards, signals “soft landing” for global economy

BancaMarch | The good and “less good” news from the IMF forecasts. Starting on the more optimistic side, they revise growth projections slightly upwards and suggest that the global economy may be approaching a “soft landing”. The “less good” refers to projections over a five-year horizon (+3.1%), the lowest in decades. GDP growth estimates for the global economy in 2024 increase by one tenth of a percentage point from those…


Xi Jinping

China’s ‘new productive forces’ risk overcapacity bubble

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s Two Sessions – the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – took place from March 4-11 in Beijing. This year, the Two Sessions have been particularly important for understanding where the Chinese economy is heading, as new Premier Li Qiang delivered his first “Work Report,” which marked the beginning of a new economic era….