Top Stories

In the World

bank generico

In the World 10th July 2023

Is worrying about capital “Much Ado About Nothing”?

Aristóbulo de Juan (Former Head of Banking Supervision. Bank of Spain) | The current obsession of bank regulators worldwide is capital, reinforcing capital. For good reasons: capital is fundamental. But, under the surface, this appears to be a nominal rather than effective fixation, at least judging by the questionable quality of some of the components of minimum capital required by regulators in Europe and elsewhere. Moreover, paradoxically, the regulatory and…

yellen elegante

World politics 7th July 2023

Yellen visits China looking to potentially ease tensions between world’s two largest economies

The US Treasury Secretary began a visit to China yesterday that is likely to last until Sunday. The expectation is that these meetings will lead to an easing of tensions between the world’s two largest economies given that, in Janet Yellen’s own words: “A disengagement of the world’s two largest economies would be destabilising for the global economy”. Today she also met with Premier Li Qiang. On the other hand,…

fed edificio

World economy 6th July 2023

Consensus at Fed for a pause, but majority of policymakers believe further hikes appropriate in future

Bankinter: The minutes of the Fed’s 13/14 June meeting show a broad consensus on the decision for a pause in rate hikes although a majority of directors (16 out of 18) believe that some additional rate hikes in the future from the current level of 5.00%-5.25% are appropriate. There is also a consensus that rates should remain in tightening territory until inflation reaches its 2% target. The minutes hardly change…

petroleo grua2CM

World economy 5th July 2023

Saudi Arabia and Russia announce new oil production cuts

BancaMarch : The energy ministry of Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the OPEC+ cartel, announced that the one million barrels per day cut in July will be extended to August to support “the stability and balance of oil markets”. At the same time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a reduction in the country’s output by an additional 500,000 barrels per day in August. Both announcements are part…

china yuanesCM

World economy 4th July 2023

China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI continues to expand in June at 50.5 from 50.9

Banca March : In China this morning, manufacturing business confidence falls less than expected. Caixin’s manufacturing PMI index, which is more biased towards smaller companies, came in at 50.5 in June from 50.9 previously, but above the 50 expected. With this figure, business confidence remains in line with the expansion of activity in the sector, a far cry from the weakness shown by these indicators in other major world economies.

mercosur

World politics 3rd July 2023

Mercosur and EU seek to close unratified free trade agreement reached in 2019

Banca March| The European Union and Mercosur – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – reached a free trade agreement in 2019 but it has since not been ratified owing to unresolved differences between the parties. Now the Mercosur members, who are meeting in Argentina, want to close the agreement “once and for all”, although they also warn that it will not be at any price. On the European side, reticence…

Sintra BCE

World economy 29th June 2023

Lagarde, Powell, Bailey agree central banks are data dependent

Bankinter | After the monetary policy panel with Lagarde (ECB), Powell (Fed), Bailey (BoE) and Ueda (BoJ), the messages of the last meetings were maintained, as expected. Lagarde, Powell and Bailey recalled that central banks are data dependent, that they take decisions “meeting by meeting” and that their work is not yet finished. Lagarde referred to a hike in July as quite likely, but did not give any guidelines for…

EEUU

In the World 28th June 2023

US consumer confidence rebounds to highest level since January 2022

Banca March: Consumer confidence bounces back higher than expected in June, rising to 109.7 from 102.5 and above the 104 expected. With this acceleration in consumer confidence, the index reached its highest level since January 2022. This is positive given that both the current situation sub-index improved (155.3 vs. 148.9 previously) and the expectations component also improved (79.3 vs. 71.5 previously). Still in the US economy, we also had positive…

Li Quiang

In the World 28th June 2023

Li Qiang says China remains on track to achieve its growth target of around 5% by 2023

Link Securities| In his speech to the Summer Davos Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is still on track to achieve its annual growth target of close to 5%, with 2Q2023 expected to grow faster than 1Q2023. The Chinese Premier acknowledged that China’s development still has imbalances and is inefficient, and that economic output per capita still remains low. He argued that companies, not governments, must decide how to…

alemania industria2

World economy 27th June 2023

Cycle continues to deteriorate: weaker than expected IFO survey in Germany, weak recovery in China, slowdown in US

Renta 4: European markets open flat (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, S&P futures +0.2%). In the background, promises of new stimulus measures in China by Prime Minister Li Qiang that could accelerate its economy in 2Q23 after the weakness shown by the latest data, although without any specifics. On the macroeconomic front, we highlight yesterday’s worse-than-expected deterioration in Germany’s IFO survey, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected opening of the Chinese economy, the…