World economy

Russian Oil Rig

Russia and Saudi Arabia to maintain voluntary oil supply cuts until at least end of 2023

Banca March: Russia and Saudi Arabia have confirmed that they will maintain voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of 2023, reviewing in December whether to prolong, deepen or end the supply cap. This supply cap began in the spring of 2023, when Russia responded to sanctions imposed for its invasion of Ukraine. Other OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, opted to join voluntary cuts totalling 1.66 million barrels per day…


Seul South Korea

South Korea’s economy to accelerate in 2024 thanks to better exports, higher capital flows and easing of financial conditions

Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) | External headwinds may seem to be only getting stronger, but the worst is likely over for the Korean economy. For most of 2023, the peninsula was reeling from the lagged impact of 300bps rate hike, double digits decline of exports, and uncertainty from US-China geopolitical rivalries that have negatively impacted its key sectors such as semiconductor production. In response, policy makers have made a series of…


China IPC

China’s October Caixin PMIs point to a near stagnant economy

Renta 4: Opening higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.6%, S&P futures 0%), picking up Wall Street’s gains after the close of European markets and awaiting the US employment data. In the background, China’s October Caixin PMIs, like the official ones, show a slowdown and point to an almost stagnant economy: services 50.4 ( versus 51 estimated and 50.2 previously) and composite 50 (versus 50.9 previously). At the corporate level, Apple’s results yesterday…


fed powell nov 2023

Fed remains cautious and meets expectations, leaves rates at 5.25/5.50%

Bankinter| The US Federal Reserve (Fed) met expectations and left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%/5.50%. Assessment: The Fed’s statement did not introduce any new developments and the decision met expectations by repeating rates once again. However, the key to the meeting was Powell’s message. In line with the previous meeting, the tone remained cautious. The Fed Chairman once again said that the central bank “will proceed carefully”, avoiding…


ArcelorMittal

ArcelorMittal to supply steel to alliance of several oil companies to develop two clean hydrogen hubs in USA

Link Securities| Two consortiums participated by ArcelorMittal and EDP Renovables have been awarded €2 billion for the development of two clean hydrogen hubs in the USA. The steelmaker and its partners will receive €950 million in government aid, while the alliance in which the renewable energy company has a stake will receive more than €1.1 billion. The MTS consortium, called the Midwest Clean Hydrogen Alliance (MachH2), includes other oil industry…


caf cartel fachada

CAF wins €150-million contract with Mitsubishi in Philippines to build 56 commuter trains for Manila

According to press reports, the Philippine Transport Authority has selected the alliance of CAF and Mitsubishi for the supply of 56 commuter trains for Manila for an amount of €150 M (1.2% of the current portfolio). The contract is still pending signature. Assessment: Positive news, although its impact is limited due to its insignificant size for the Company as a whole and because it is still pending signature.


fmi china

IMF considering increasing China’s voting rights to reflect its position in global economy

Banca March: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering increasing China’s voting rights to bring its share in the fund in line with its position in the global economy. Each country contributes a quota based on various factors reflecting economic positioning relative to the world economy. This quota designates the amount each country has to pay into the fund, as well as its voting rights. Currently, the Asian giant has…


China

World Bank downgrades East Asian growth forecasts due to contagion effect from China’s slumping growth forecasts

Banca March: The World Bank has updated its economic forecasts for East Asia and the Pacific in its October report. Although the regions in question have shown a recovery from pandemic levels, the association warns of slow development. While the outlook for China’s output rates in 2023 is maintained (5.1%), those for next year 2024 are down from April’s estimates (4.8% to 4.4%). Likewise, the contagion effect of the Chinese…


Federal Reserve

Rate hikes cannot curb inflation

J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Fed kept rates on hold this week. Yet, Jerome Powell shattered hopes they had reached a ceiling, announcing in the press conference that an extra hike was in the pipeline before the year-end. Inflation is still running too high and will likely take much longer than expected to match its medium-term goal. Powell was at odds in justifying why rate stiffening has neither cooled the economy…


china yuanesCM

Signs of stabilisation in China: consumption and industrial production pick up

BancaMarch : China is showing signs of stabilising. The battery of indicators published on Friday morning has been favourable, with a rebound in consumption and also in industrial production. In contrast, the real estate market continues to deteriorate. Starting with consumption, retail sales rebounded more than expected in August, growing at +4.6% year-on-year, above the previous 2.5% and exceeding the +3% forecast. Thus, for the first eight months of the…