Renta 4: European stock markets point to a new upward opening (EuroStoxx futures +0.27%) to end the weekly session in positive territory . On the bond market, in the US, the 2-year IRR rose more than 14 bps to 4.11%, while the 10-year rose c.+9 bps to 3.91% (3.90 this morning). In Europe, we also witnessed a rebound in IRRs, on average +6 bps, with the T-Bund at c. 2.25% and the Spanish 10yr at 3.07% (today morning they are up to 2.26% and 3.09% respectively).
US macro releases yesterday (with better than expected retail sales and initial jobless claims showing a better tone), helped to ease recession fears, despite a Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey that came in significantly below expectations (-7.0 versus 11e versus 13.9 previously). In this sense, retail sales posted the strongest monthly growth since January 2023, confirming that US consumer spending remains solid. Moreover, this view was reinforced by Walmart’ s better than expected results , which gave a better sales guidance for the year, with expected growth between 3.75%-4.75% (versus 3%-4% previous estimate). With this, the market picked up the positive side of the published references, as consensus expectations of a -50 bps cut at the next Fed meeting continued to moderate (from 54.5% at the beginning of the week, to 37.5% after the CPI data, and to 29.5% now; 100% probability of a -25 bps cut).
Meanwhile, Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, has been out of step with the normalisation trend of other banks. Yesterday it kept rates at 4.5% (in line with expectations) and anticipated a more restrictive monetary policy in the face of uncertainty and inflation that is not easing.
Today in the US we will know the preliminary data on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan (along with its components of current situation, expectations, and one and five year inflation). The New York Fed services index for August will also be released.
Finally, next week ‘s focus will be on the central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole (22-24 August), where the market will try to telegraph Jerome Powell’s message. However, while rate decisions will continue to await macro data, the next official US employment report due on 6 September will be decisive.
