UBP | Several major emerging markets economies are gaining speed. Indian and Indonesian GDP have posted successive gains and are likely to hold the current level of momentum given high government infrastructure spending. Russia is coming out of a recession; with the boost from interest rate cuts. In Brazil, leading indicators are turning less negativ.
UBS | Our 165k forecast for headline payrolls and 155k forecast for private payrolls are marginally faster than the October increases but marginally slower than earlier in the year.
Julius Baer Research | Consumer demand actually looks quite good in all markets, where the overall economic backdrop has improved, with less unemployment and rising real wages. The private consumption component of gross domestic product (GDP) varies between 60% and more than 70%, as is the case for the US, in advanced economies.
This coming Friday November 25th is celebrated throughout the world as Black Friday. The name originated in the United States in the 1960s and refers to the shopping day after Thanksgiving. The first estimates on pre-Christmas sales (Black Friday and Cyber Monday) point to a record season this year.
AXA IM | Mexico, together with China, appears to be the country most exposed to Trump’s economic policy given its vicinity and close trade relations with the US. The Mexican peso has depreciated by 10% relative to its pre-election day closing level, the stock market is down 6% and the local currency sovereign 10-year rate has shot up by 112bps.
Joachim Koops | November 9, 2016, could become an American, transatlantic and global “Day of Fate” of another kind. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States of America is feared by some as leading to a US exit from liberal order.
In the United States, there is absolutely no discussion about the independent nature of organisms like Florida’s State Board of Administration – SBA. In fact, its director Ash Williams defends an increase in public spending, which is anathema to the Republicans with the exception of President-elect Donald Trump. He also affirms the US and many other industrialised economies need a responsible fiscal policy.
It is too early to guess what kind of economic policy the Trump administration may deliver. The markets are crossing their fingers and praying the President-elect will ultimately hand over matters to an experienced team.
John Bruton | Donald Trump was much more eloquent than his rival, Hillary Clinton. He came across as comfortable with himself, whereas Clinton appeared anxious at times. He felt he could allow himself to be spontaneous, whereas she did not. Trump has raised so many expectations that it may be impossible for him to live up to them.
Francesco Saraceno | Trump is not the John Maynard Keynes of 2016. His agenda is, broadly speaking, an agenda of deregulation, tax cuts for the rich, and retreat of the State from the economy. Not to mention the strong chance of a more hawkish Fed in the future. To sum up, Trump is, in the best case scenario a new Reagan.