UBS | Non-Japan Asian private debt is now the highest in the world for any major region and is climbing toward 170% of GDP. As we have argued in our Debtopia thesis since 2013, rising leverage will increasingly result in diminishing marginal benefits to economies and profits when debt becomes excessive.
Kate Gordon via Caixin| It’s official: we’re in a time of energy transition. On April 22, Earth Day, the UN’s most recent climate deal – known as the Paris Agreement – will be formally signed in New York, ushering in a new era of country-led action to reduce carbon emissions.
Julius Baer Research | After last Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, the US Fed and the BoJ are due to report this week. Will these three heavy-weight central banks do whatever it takes to reflate the global economy? We believe definitely, yes, if reflation does not unfold as desired.
Natixis AM | In Q1 I had the chance to travel and spend some time with our U.S. advisor and investor clients. While no two portfolios are identical, I was struck by one major commonality: the amount of cash and uninvested balances left in portfolios. On a recent trip to the West Coast, advisors frequently noted portfolios with 10%–40% (!) cash.
UBS | We hosted three meetings in HK this week for Chinese construction companies, which included China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), China Railway Group (CRG) and China Communications Construction Company (CCCC).
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Probably bank and other financial institution bailouts, within context, are positive for the economy. Indeed, aggressive robustly financed bailouts should be conventional policy, while other regulations eschewed, as long as shareholders and convertible bondholders take the first, big and hard hit of any major financial institution failure.
“This abnormal aversion to risk may be the worst legacy of the crisis. The reason why US companies do not use their extremely high profits – and stock market valuations – to invest, open up new markets…but rather to buyback their own shares and further boost their share price and bonuses.”
Market timing has long been the holy grail for investors, and evidence suggests that it works but might be a tricky game to play.
Caixin | Until recently, Chinese officials could rest assured that their path on the bureaucratic ladder went only upward, unless they were punished for some reason, usually corruption. No more. A policy passed in June 2015 by the Communist Party’s second-highest decision-making body, the 25-member Politburo, stipulated that officials should be demoted for failing to meet the requirements of their post.
James Alexander via Historinhas | As the FOMC increasingly avers that it is data-driven the demand to have better data has led to greater focus on aggregated current data. Whether the FOMC really looks at it, given it is ignoring its own Labour Market Conditions Index, is hard to say.