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World economy

USbrokers1

World economy 3rd January 2016

US Brokers and Asset Managers: Which debates are likely to evolve or emerge in 2016 ?

UBS | We expect the primary investor focus in 2016 to remain on interest rates but some key debates should shift a long with the environment. A few of the debates we propose and analyze include: Will the realization of earnings from rates matter next year? How will investor perception of asset sensitivity evolve as rates start to rise? Will earnings from higher rates lead to less pricing discipline by trust banks? Is the M&A cycle peaking?

populist

World economy 1st January 2016

The Social Roots of Political Realignment in the West

Jean Pisani-Ferry via Caixin | For the first time in several decades, a series of Western countries are simultaneously experiencing major political upheaval. In several of them, populist parties that challenge consensual principles and established policies, and candidates who define themselves as anti-system outsiders, are on the rise or already in power.

john kerry

World economy 31st December 2015

10 Good Things About the Not-So-Great 2015

Medea Benjamin | It would certainly be easy to do a piece about ten horrible events from 2015—from the ongoing war in Syria and the refugee crisis, to the attacks in Beirut, Paris and San Bernardino, to the rise of Donald Trump and Islamophobia. But that wouldn’t be a very inspiring way to bid farewell to this year and usher in a new one. So let’s look at ten reasons to feel better about 2015.

commodities

World economy 29th December 2015

The fall in raw material prices – a real crisis for emerging markets

China’s exports declined for the ninth consecutive month in November, falling even more than forecast (-6.8% vs -5% estimated). This data has set off alarm bells in the raw material markets and amongst producer countries, most of which are emerging economies, given that China is their main consumer on a global level. Raw material prices are at their lowest levels since the beginning of the last century.

China interest rate reform

World economy 29th December 2015

Pondering China, the People’s Bank of China And QE

Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Westerners love to hazard guesses on China and that is what they are, guesses. Even a Mandarin speaker in Hong Kong (with whom I recently conversed), with family on the mainland and employed at a large private-equity fund, professes no special insights into opaque China. But China’s central bank, The People’s Bank of China, appears to have eschewed the advice of Western central bankers, and gunned the money presses this summer. Moreover, the PBoC tactic looks to be working.

Janet Yellen testimony

World economy 28th December 2015

A Free Market in Interest Rates

Keith Weiner via TrumanFactor | Unless you’re living under a rock, you know that we have an administered interest rate. This means that the bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve decide what’s good for the little people. Then they impose it on us. In trying to return to freedom, many people wonder why couldn’t we let the market set the interest rate. After all, we don’t have a Corn Control Agency or a Lumber Board (pun intended). So why do we have a Federal Open Market Committee? It’s a very good question.

china Soes

World economy 27th December 2015

A Gentle Nudge for Better Corporate Governance

Caixin | Last month, the G-20 summit held in Turkey endorsed the G-20/OECD Principles of Corporate Governance. As a G-20 country, China is on board with the standards, too. That means Chinese companies, especially state-owned enterprises, must adhere to the principles.

digital market

World economy 25th December 2015

How Digitally Popular is Your Country?

Samantha North | The time is ripe for governments to start monitoring their digital reputation just as they monitor it in the real world. The Digital Country Index has been recently released for the first time. This new tool categorizes online search terms to form a picture of the world’s true levels of interest in countries.

dragon

World economy 23rd December 2015

The Dragon’s Tail: What Would A 4% China Do To World’s Markets?

UBS | Our base case forecasts for China’s growth are already below consensus at 6.2% for 2016 and 5.8% for 2017. In this note we study the impact on global economies and assets of a much darker and, in our view, extremely unlikely scenario where China real GDP growth slips to 4%, and nominal growth below 1.5%.

central banks1

World economy 22nd December 2015

Zombie Economics Will Never Die

Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | The tight-money crowd is dominant in central-bank staffs, and so firmly (and self-perpetuatingly?) ensconced in such independent government sinecures that they look likely to outlast all rivals. That tight-money enthusiasts preach an increasingly dubious religion or ideology—I have dubbed it Theomonetarism—is unimportant. They have allies in media and academia, curiously always on the right-wing side of things (with some exceptions, such as Ramesh Ponnuru at National Review, James Pethokoukis at AEI, and Scott Sumner, of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University).