Brazil: The More The government “Gives”, The More Industrial Production Falls
Brazil industrial production have been evolving according to the world average. For the past six years, however, it “dismounted from the world horse”.
World economy
Time To Come Out Of The Shadows
BBVA Research | Transforming shadow banking into resilient and market – based financing is one of the four core elements of the global financial regulatory reform undertaken by the G20 in 2008 at its first meeting in Washington . But prog ress towards achieving this goal is uneven and there is still work to be done. The implementation of the agreed measures is in an incipient phase. The most significant advances have been in improving transparency and aligning incentives in securitisation.
Ten Million Missing US Workers Due To Monetary Policy Not Demographics
James Alexander via Historinhas | We often hear from both the right and the left that the relative lack of growth in the US is mostly due to supply issues, in particular changing demographics. Those baby-boomers retiring have created a new stagnation. The US Bureau for Labor Statistics (BLS) has consistently encouraged this view. There’s really nothing that can be done about it.
China: The Inevitable Failure Of A Fixed Exchange Rate
World stock markets’ current weakness reflects concerns about a serious downturn in China’s economy. The fall in global oil prices is the result of the decline in Chinese demand. The doubt is whether this fall will be a soft one or whether the government will lose control and will be unable to avoid a severe financial crisis
No Sense Of Urgency To Tackle The Crisis In Venezuela
BARCLAYS | When President Maduro announced the members of his new cabinet on January 6, he seemed to signal his intention to maintain a hard-line stance; there was no suggestion of any willingness to make the adjustments to correct the large distortions and imbalances hampering Venezuela’s economy.
US: New Year, New Interest Rates
It’s like a curse. Every time a central bank raises interest rates, it has to retract. Sometimes it’s because the move has been precipitative. Three weeks after the Fed decided to raise rates, oil prices and the Chinese stock market tumbled in unison and Wall Street started a correction. So had the Fed been too hasty?
What To Make Of Divisions In The West
Marc Chandler via Caixin | Lenin and Kautsky once debated the future of imperialism. Kautsky saw a trend toward a global ruling class. Lenin argued that despite such tendencies, inter-imperialist rivalries would prevent the emergence of global ruling class. The so-called West was never as homogenous as the cold warriors pretended. There were asymmetrical perceptions of the threat posed by the Soviet Union until its dying days. Only now do the United States and Europe contemplate a free-trade pact.
China Big Surprise In 2016: RMB To depreciate by 5% against the USD
UBS | 2015 saw China’s growth slowing further but the government’s intensified policy support helped to prevent a hard landing. The equity market was very volatile and the world was surprised by China’s modest but perhaps ill – timed currency move. For 2016, we expect growth to grind lower with further policy easing, corporate restructuring to accelerate, and RMB to depreciate by another 5%. However, there could be some big surprises too on property destocking, SOE reform, RMB exchange rate and financial markets.
The Fed Must Be Happy. The Employment Numbers “Confirm Their View”!
They are right. That´s the way the Fed thinks. But it is dangerous and wrong! Insisting on the mistake will likely lead to another recession. Larry Kudlow (HT Lars Christensen) also rants on the Fed´s mistaken view.
Tapped For SDR Basket, Yuan Reform Goes Global
Wang Liwei and Huo Kan via Caixin | Advocates of financial reform consider the International Monetary Fund’s plan to add the yuan to its special drawing rights (SDR) currency basket as momentous as the World Trade Organization’s welcome in 2001.