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LatinAmerica Covid19

In the World, World economy 19th January 2021

Latin America: Heavy Dependence On Informal Labour And Tourism Exacerbates The Covid-19 Shock

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | Of all emerging market regions, Latin America and the Caribbean (Latam) has been most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, both in terms of infection and death rates, and regarding the impact on its economy. The outlook is highly uncertain and weighted down by growing fears of a new wave of infections. Rising prospects of multiple Covid-19 vaccines are definitively hopeful. However, the vaccine rollout is expected to move more slowly in the Latam region compared to advanced markets due to smaller vaccine orders so far relative to population and more logistical challenges. Therefore the economic benefits from the vaccine are expected to manifest first through the improving external environment as rollout across advanced markets boosts trade, commodity prices and external financing flows.
bitcoin bullish

World economy 18th January 2021

Bitcoin: Why The price Has Exploded – And Where It Goes From Here

Andrew Urquhart via The Conversation | Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to just below US$30,000 by the end of the year. There are plenty of very bullish forecasts for the bitcoin price in 2021. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the founders of leading crypto exchange Gemini, believe bitcoin will eventually hit US$500,000 per coin, while a Citigroup analyst suggests a price of US$318,000 by December 2021. 

Biden wins celebrations

In the World, World economy 15th January 2021

Biden Announces Stimulus Plans Worth $1,9 Bn, While Powell Clears Up Doubts Over QE

Monex Europe | The dollar has been regaining ground since yesterday amid concerns that President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.9tn stimulus plan may fail to win broad-based support, as Republican opposition is possible over the big-ticket spending. These concerns are reinforced by the voting procedure in the Senate: fiscal stimulus requires 3/5ths of the votes (60 votes) in order to pass. Among the elements in the proposal are direct payments of $1,400, on top of the $600 approved in December, $350bn for state and local governments, $160bn in vaccination funding, $130bn to help schools reopen, and additional employment benefits.

china lantern

In the World, World economy 14th January 2021

Chinese Economy, Priorities For 2021

Morgan Stanley | With growth already at pre-Covid levels, China has announced its priorities: a gradual exit from stimulus, internalisation of the yuan and reduction of carbon emissions. These are  some of our predictions: Foreign Exchange reserves of $3,190 bn (vs $ 3,178 bn in November 2020; Headline inflation from -0.5% to 0% and a credit growth down 0.1% to 13.6%. Furthermore, we estimate that the deficit will fall to 12% of GDP, after reaching a record high of 15.4% in 2020. But still above 9.9% in 2019. 

 

 

USA reflation

In the World, World economy 9th January 2021

Reflationary Thesis Strengthens As Democrats Win Slim Senate Majority

Salman Ahmed (Fidelity International) | Georgia run-off elections on 6 January handed the Democratic party effective control of the US Senate with a slim majority that will limit the ambitions of a Biden presidency. However, this will be able to boost fiscal spending to help the economy recover from Covid-19 and grow by more than 7% in 2021. This further strengthens the reflationary thesis, but means a potential taper tantrum is top of the list of factors we are watching. 

US China relations

In the World, World economy 7th January 2021

China Will Overtake The US As The World’s Largest Economy In 2028, Five Years Earlier Than Expected

China will confirm its transformation into the world’s largest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously predicted. This is the result of the “ability” with which the Asian giant has managed the coronavirus crisis and its greater relative impact on the large Western economies, according to the latest edition of the World Economic League, produced by the Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR).

Capitolio assault

In the World, World economy 7th January 2021

Investors Ignore The Assault On Capitol: 10-Year US Bond Yields Exceed 1% For The First Time Since March

Yesterday’s assault on the US Capitol by Trump supporters on the grounds of election fraud is an episode of violence not seen in the almost two and a half centuries of the existence of the US,” Banca March’ analysts note. What is suprising is the fact that investors ignore that “this is a direct attack on democratic institutions”, Link Securities points out.

LaIndia

World economy 4th January 2021

Is 2021 The Year For ASEAN And India To Shine?

For India, the sharp fall of domestic demand led to a huge decline in imports that drove the current account into surplus, giving the country savings during times of crisis. The Philippines also had a balance of payment surplus as its imports collapsed, driven by the large drop in investment and contraction in consumption, which was unprecedented. But those factors, coupled with low rates domestically and externally, pave the way for not just a financial market rebound but also an economic recovery in 2021, as funding conditions are favourable and balance sheets trimmer.

Biden kerry

In the World, World economy 3rd January 2021

How Biden And Kerry Could Rebuild America’s Global Climate Leadership

Dolf Gielen and Morgan Bazilian via The Conversation | The global shift to clean energy will also have geopolitical implications for countries and regions, and this will have a profound impact on wider international relations. Kerry, with his experience as secretary of state in the Obama administration, and Biden’s plan to make the climate envoy position part of the National Security Council, may help mend these relations. In doing so, the U.S. may again join the wider community of countries willing to lead.