Jefferies | 7% profit beat on better revs (NII and trading income), partly offset by higher costs and impairments. While every market was a beat, the strong NII momentum was driven primarily by Turkey&South America, with both Spain&Mexico broadly in line. 1Q26 CoR trailing worse than FY26 guide, albeit partly explained by c100m EUR PMA top-up. FY26 RoTE now seen >20% (vs c20% before), with upside risk to Mexico growth partly offset by downside risk to Turkish earnings.
BBVA reported 1Q26 attributable profit of 2,989m EUR, which was 7% above company consensus of 2,803m EUR on better revenues (NII and trading income), partly offset by higher impairments and costs. PBT was also a 7% beat, with PPP an 8% beat. Group top line was a 6% beat, costs were 3% heavier than consensus. Impairments were a 10% miss. 2026 RoTE guidance upgraded to >20% (versus c20% before), on upside risk to Mexican growth partly offset by downside risk to Turkish earnings. Last tranche of the 4bn EUR BBK (1.5bn EUR) set to begin next week. NII was a 4% beat, up 7% q/q and up 18% y/y. Net fee income was a 3% beat, with trading income a 31% beat. Total costs were 3% heavier than consensus. Total impairments were a 10% miss versus consensus. CoR of 154bps in 1Q. 94m EUR PMA top-up to reflect the elevated macroeconomic uncertainty, primarily affecting Turkey and Spain. Customer loans were 3% above consensus, up 4% q/q and up 15% y/y. Capital: CET1 ratio of 12.8% was in line with consensus, with CET1 2% ahead and RWAs 2% heavier. 1Q26 RoTE at 21.7%, trailing above FY26 guidance. By key Geo: Spain: 5% bottom line beat on better income (trading income 100m EUR ahead), partly offset by small misses in NII, costs and impairments. Loans growing +6.3% y/y, underpinned by remarkable performance in Consumer & Credit Cards (+9.4%) and especially in Mid-size Companies (+7.6%) and Corporates & CIB (+11.0%). Deposits up 7.9% y/y. 34bps CoR in the quarter. Mexico: profits in line with consensus, with higher income (trading income and other income) offset by higher costs and impairments. Loan growth strong, at +8.4% y/y, with strong momentum balanced between retail and wholesale segments. CoR stable at 345bps. Turkey: 14% bottom line beat on better revenues (NII and trading income) partly offset by impairments. Growth below inflation in the quarter, concentrated in TL loans. CoR is broadly stable at 253 bps in 1Q26 reflecting both the still high provisioning needs in the retail segment as anticipated in the guidance for 2026. 2026 Guidance slightly improved. 2026 RoTE now seen >20% (vs c20% before). BBVA is flagging upward bias to the HSD loan growth guidance for Mexico and downward bias to the 1bn EUR profit guidance for Turkey.
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.
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