Renta 4 | Naturgy (NTGY) will publish its 9M25 results on Wednesday, 29 October 2025, before the market opens, with a conference call at 11:30 a.m. Target price €26.10 and underweight recommendation.
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A good performance is expected for 9M figures, which should continue the trend seen in the first half of the year (9M24 figures pending publication). The improved pricing environment favours the energy management business, with a possible increase in RAB, higher installed capacity expected in renewables and a foreseeable high level of combined cycle production, mainly in Spain. However, we expect these positive effects to be offset by the exchange rate and the negative effect on marketing margins from the use of cycles as complementary services after the blackout, in addition to the fact that in 2024 there were various positive extraordinary effects in the Chilean networks and in marketing.
Net debt will be affected by the purchase of around 10% of treasury shares in the self-takeover bid process, partially offset by the first accelerated placement (the October placement will be included in Q4). We believe that the other items should not differ significantly from the trend seen in H1.
Ahead of the conference, we will see what comments they might make regarding their view of the energy environment for the coming months.
Although the figures could lead us to believe that the guidance will be exceeded at the end of the year, in principle, we do not expect any changes to the 2025 guidance (EBITDA 2025 >€5.3 billion, net profit 2025 >€2 billion), as Q4 is usually weaker than Q2 and Q3. The EBITDA guidance is currently 3% above our forecast, while the net profit guidance exceeds our expectations by more than 10%. If these forecasts are confirmed in the results publication, we will revise our figures, although for the time being we reiterate our target price and recommendation.
