Intermoney | FCC (Buy, Target Price €15) published its Q1 26 results today before the market opened, holding a conference call at 9am. The key figures, alongside our estimates, are shown in the attached table. The results showed moderate growth in the services businesses and significant growth in Construction. All of this led to a 6% increase in consolidated EBITDA to €346 million (€351 million Intermoney estimate). On this occasion, FCC reported only up to EBIT and net profit, a figure that rose by 12% to €66 million compared to our forecast of €70 million. We confirm our estimates for the time being, which have not changed significantly following the annual figures. We expect a CAGR of 7% in EBITDA for 2026–2028, although adjusting for provisions in Construction in 2025, the annual increase would be around 5%. We consider the sale of 25% of the Environment business to be completed in 2026.
We confirm our Buy rating and our target price of €15. Last February, we raised our target price for FCC to €15 per share, effective December 26, from the previous €14.5; we had already adjusted it in November 2024 from €16, taking into account the spin-off of the Inmocemento businesses. Despite the share price’s stability—which has stood in contrast to market rises in 2025 and 2026—we believe that, by divesting its more cyclical businesses, FCC is focusing on activities with lower earnings volatility, as evidenced by the Q1 figures. This should make the stock more attractive to conservative investors, particularly following recent global commercial developments. Net debt, currently just over 2x EBITDA, is expected to fall by more than €600m over the year from €25bn. Our valuation is supported by the recent sale of 25% of Medioambiente for around €1,000m.
