Bankinter | Gestamp (GEST) surprises in Q2 with improved margins despite sales figures. For 2025 as a whole, it reiterates its guidance. However, we believe it will be difficult to meet its revenue growth target. At constant exchange rates, sales grew less than the average production in the countries where the company operates (-0.9% versus +3.7% for the market) at the end of the first half. In fact, following these figures, we are lowering our volume estimates.
However, our target price is rising to €3.3 (from €2.8 previously). The improvement stems from two variables: (i) we are using 2026/2030 as our assessment horizon (versus 2025/2029 previously) and (ii) our discount rate has fallen to 7.5% (from 8.8% previously) in light of the reduction in the risk-free rate. In any case, our target price offers no upside potential and we are maintaining our Sell recommendation.
