Sacyr’s risk profile is lower than the market assumes: Buy (T.P. 3,6 euros/share)

SacyrSacyr's risk profile less than market assumes

Intermoney | Results 9M 2022e on 7 November – EBITDA +26%, still reflecting the impact of costs in construction. Sacyr will announce its results on Monday 7 November before the market opening, with a conference call at 1300. We expect the company will have continued with the growth seen in past quarters. However, this will have relaxed vs H1’22 due to the impact of the rise in costs and more demanding year-on-year comparison. So EBITDA would have grown by 26% to 796 million euros (+32% to June); amortisations and financials would limit the increase in net profit to +10% to 66 million euros.

Sacyr – fewer risks than the market assumes. We confirm our Buy stance for Sacyr, as well as the T.P. of 3,6 euros/share to December 23e, which we upped from 3,4 euros last month. At the same time, we are raising our estimates for EBITDA an average of +13% in 22e-24e. All in all, we think that the stock’s risk value is less than we believe the market assumes, given that: 1) total debt levels seems reasonabl to us, taking into account the global consolidation of the concessions; 2) the policy of asset rotation, particularly with the announcement of the sale of its services business; 3) reinforced policy of corporate debt reduction; 4)assured returns on the majority of projects; and 5) already a strong presence in its markets with bigger growth.

 

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