There seems to be a positive vibe towards investment in Europe’s periphery. Morgan Stanley has conducted a survey among investors 9% below 150bp; another 38% points to a CDS between 200-250bp”. Only 12% of respondents considered that “the sovereign/banking sector debt-related problems will determine their investment decisions over the next 12 months vs. 61% in 2012”.
These are the main conclusions of the survey:
– For 79% of participants, equities will be the most attractive asset during the next 12 months and the USD is the currency of preference.
– “Positioning is linked to positive feelings”. In this sense, almost half of investment managers allege to be “OW in assets with higher risk vs. only 5% UW”. In general they are positive on the European periphery.
-In a macro-level tone remains cautious. At Morgan Stanley they have not found “a single investor expecting a growth above trend during the next four quarters.”
– The survey also emphasizes that “markets behavior will depend on monetary policies”. The vast majority of investment managers hope that “the ECB continues to lower rates and half of them expect interest on deposits to be negative at any time”.
-As for the situation in the United States, “98% of investors expect the QE/ZIRP policy to continue leading the reflation in the assets price. 38% expect the Fed to begin managing a way out of this policy during the 2H’13 although up to 79% answered that scenario would entail significant volatility.”