By Tania Suárez, in Madrid | Even though the Spanish risk premium on Wednesday morning dropped to 328 basis points, financial analysts in Madrid are split up about its evolution. 50% of the analysts consulted by Consenso consider reasonable a fall below 300bp before the end of 2012. Most of them clarify that the risk premium will decrease, but depending on economic developments in the international economic context. Also, some of them explain that we are in a year of high market volatility, so the Spanish risk premium will fluctuate between 300bp and 400 bp, and then it will be lower at the end of the year. The more optimistic views are sure about this possibility.
On the other hand, the remaining sector of the analysts consider that the Spanish risk premium will not go under 300bp, and some expect it to go beyond and higher from its current levels.
After weeks of relative stability in the Spanish spreads, Consenso has surveyed 12 expert analysts.