Renta 4 | Erste Bank is reportedly considering acquiring 49% of Santander Bank Polska (in which it has a 62% stake) which could lead to a takeover bid for 100%, according to press reports.
Banco Santander has confirmed in a statement to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) that it has received interest from various parties and that it is in talks with Erste Group Bank AG for a possible sale. It also warns that there is no certainty that they will reach an agreement and, in any case, the closing of the transaction would be subject to conditions.
Santander’s Polish division had a RoTe of 20.2% in 2024 and contributed 6.3% of the Group’s net profit. The division has an efficiency ratio of 27% and represents only 3.8% of the Group’s loan portfolio.
Assessment: These rumours about a possible divestment are not new, Santander Polska was already mentioned at the beginning of April as a possible area for divestment.
At yesterday’s closing price, 49% of Santander Bank Polska is worth €7,125 million and according to our estimates it trades at 17x 2025e P/E (12x consensus) versus 7.3x Santander.If the divestment is carried out, it would fit within the Group’s strategy, which is focused on developing the US and Latam areas, which offer greater growth potential.
Overweight. Target Price €7.58/share.
