The latest ‘Quarterly Economic Pulse’ report from EY Insights advocates strengthening the single market and innovation in the face of escalating tariffs, forecasting GDP growth of up to 2.5 per cent for Spain.
Reported by the Consejeros Editorial Team
The European Union must focus its efforts on internal competitiveness, the integration of the single market and the reduction of regulatory burdens to successfully meet the economic challenge posed by China. This is the main conclusion reached by the heads of the research department in Spain in the summer 2026 edition of the Quarterly Economic Pulse, produced by EY Insights.
Strategic balance and industrial policy
Faced with the global trade crossroads, analysts have awarded a record score (8.88 out of 10) to improving the EU’s capacity for innovation and production. The experts rule out both a strategy based solely on dialogue and cooperation (5.50 points) and a generalised tightening of tariffs (5.63 points).
Instead, they advocate a middle ground based on two pillars: a more active European industrial policy and the use of selective trade defence mechanisms (7.93 points) targeted at sectors affected by subsidies, overcapacity or unfair competition. As Juan Pablo Riesgo, partner in charge of EY Insights, points out, “improving competitiveness and driving forward the integration of the European market are the most powerful tools for strengthening Europe’s position in its relationship with China”.
The Spanish economy holds its own on the international stage
At a national level, the study reflects the strength of the economic cycle. 93.8 per cent of respondents estimate Spanish GDP growth at between 2 per cent and 2.5 per cent for 2026, demonstrating a remarkable level of resilience in the face of external headwinds.
Domestic optimism is underpinned primarily by the momentum of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (viewed positively by 64.8 per cent of those surveyed) and by the strength of household consumption (50 per cent). Investment and business competitiveness continue to provide favourable support for economic activity.
Geopolitical risks and the shadow of the United States
However, the external environment is the source of the greatest concerns. The tariff policy of the new US administration is the most poorly rated factor, with 87 per cent of experts expressing disapproval. Added to this are geopolitical instability in the Middle East (viewed negatively by 75 per cent) and the slowdown in global trade (66.7 per cent).
At a local level, the main vulnerability identified is the political landscape: 75 per cent of analysts warn that parliamentary fragmentation could hamper the dynamism of the Spanish economy in the medium term.
