By Deborah Cunningham The ability of the new Chair, Kevin Warsh, to lead the Federal Reserve will depend on the market believing that he is not beholden to President Trump. Being sworn in at a ceremony held at the White House has not done him any favours. It was the first time since President Reagan swore in Alan Greenspan that the ceremony took place there rather than at the central…
Reported by Consejeros Editorial Team The Croatian economist Boris Vujčić, a central banker who advocates keeping inflation under control through higher interest rates, takes up the post of Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), replacing Spain’s Luis de Guindos, for a non-renewable eight-year term. Almost three and a half years after the introduction of the euro in Croatia, Vujčić joins the ECB’s Executive Board at a time when the…
This Thursday marks three months since the start of the Iran war, whilst peace negotiations continue – negotiations that do not appear to be bearing fruit. Meanwhile, the energy crisis continues to take its toll on the global economy. In fact, Scope Ratings forecasts that “the price of oil will average around $100 per barrel in 2026 and that, from then on, it will fall only gradually, remaining in 2027…
The ‘Report on the Impact of AI on the Employment Structure 2026–2030’ produced by GenAiA (Generative AI Association) highlights how 54% of banking jobs have high potential for automation according to Citigroup, and how AI systems already outperform humans in legal and medical tasks. Analysis by Editorial Board According to Layoffs.fyi, the 1.17 million job cuts recorded in 2025 — the highest figure since 2020 — represent only the visible…
Report by Pablo Duarte The market is faced with a robust US economy and a weak eurozone: inflation is rebounding, driven by energy prices, whilst geopolitical risks are mounting. At the same time, expectations regarding interest rates are increasingly diverging, and global growth forecasts have been revised downwards. The global economy is reeling, energy costs remain sky-high, the war in Iran is driving up transport costs and fuelling serious fears…
Report by Link Securities The European Commission (EC), in its Spring Economic Report 2026, has revised downwards its forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone, citing inflationary pressures arising from the conflict in the Middle East. Thus, the EC has cut its growth forecast for the EU economy for 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%, and for the Eurozone economy to 0.9% from…
By Martin Wolburg Just as signs of a recovery in economic activity were beginning to emerge, the conflict with Iran has started to weigh on the eurozone economy. Confidence indicators deteriorated significantly in April: the composite PMI fell below the expansion threshold to 48.6, and consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Rising energy prices are eroding real incomes, and inflation accelerated from 1.9%…
Synthetic securitisations – which allow underlying assets to remain on the balance sheet and enable banks to expand their balance sheets without increasing capital – now account for 3% of Spanish banks’ total assets. By the Consejeros Editorial Team The weight of synthetic securitisations on Spanish banks’ balance sheets continues to rise and now accounts for 49% of total securitisations. Just five years ago, in the 2020 financial year, they…
By Alicia García Herrero The images of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing tell a story: two leaders surrounded by business delegations, flanked by CEOs, toasting the promise of renewed trade relations. Public reports of the talks refer to the creation of new trade bodies and regulatory frameworks for investment, rumours that US financial firms have finally managed to break into the Chinese market and that…
Santander Corporate & Investment | There are no divisions here, inflation data are undoubtedly starting to look more erratic after the first big downward adjustments at the end of 2022, falls that raised hopes of a pivotal moment for central banks and explained a large part of the unprecedented January rally in the markets. Base effects will be the main ally for much of 2023, but our economists believe that…