A Banco Santander note on Thursday addressing the misled general belief that it is Finland’s government that poses the tallest barrier in the Greek bailout’s way:
“Positive news from Greece. The government announced aggressive additional measures necessary to reduce the deficit and thus gain access to the next €8bn tranche of aid. In any case, the risk of implementation is very high so it is expected that December (coming quarterly review of the Troika) will be a month plagued with volatility. Upon approval of the aid tranche, perhaps the following week after the arrival of the Troika to Greece, the baton will be passed to the EFSF’s hands.
“The Finnish finance minister yesterday said that she expects parliament to approve changes and that the collateral problem will soon be solved (without giving further details.) Finland will vote on September 28 and Germany will do so one day later.
“In this context, the questions now move to Slovenia. The government failed to win a confidence vote on Wednesday. Thus, the EFSF vote, scheduled for the coming week, is left in doubt (the government will stay in office for a month so there could be enough time for the vote to take place).”