Intermoney | Aena (AENA) (Hold, Target Price €150/share) released last Friday, with the market open, the Spanish passenger traffic data for September. Some 27.5 million passengers transited through Aena’s airports last month, +1.5% above 2019 levels. The dichotomy was again observed between Madrid and Barcelona on the one hand, which remain below pre-pandemic levels, -3% and -10%, respectively, and the rest, which exceed this threshold, highlighting Valencia (+20%) and Malaga (+12%).
So far this year, the figures also remain above 2019 for the whole network (+1.3%), with Madrid and BCN falling by an average of -5%, more than offset by the rest, with good data from tourist airports, such as Lanzarote, Malaga or Menorca, which are up more than +10%.
Assessment: The good run of traffic continues for Aena, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, although certainly nowhere near what was forecast in 2019 which would be the volumes in 2023. Traffic in Europe and the rest of the world in general is in fact similar to what we are seeing in Madrid or Barcelona, still below.
The Q3 earnings guidance for Aena are to be published today, but will not significantly change our view of a return in 2023e to 2019 EBITDA levels, combining a recovery in commercial activity and higher contribution from assets outside Spain, offset by higher operating costs in Aeronautics.
