Banco Sabadell | Exceltur has published its forecasts for 2022, flagging that it expects a strong recovery in Spain from the month of April. According to the tourism lobby, it expects the GDP contribution from tourism in Spain to reach 135 billion euros. This is 41 billion euros over 2021, but still 19 billion below 2019 figures. Whatsmore, the lion’s share of companies surveyed expects to recover 2019 revenue levels from 2023 (we see this happening in 2024-2025). In this respect. Cehat (the Spanish Confederation of Hotels and Tourist Accomodation) yesterday presented a report with the forecast reservations for Q1’22, based on data from the consultancy STR. In the end, these figures quadruple the final figures for the same period in 2021. And this is despite the fact that the UK, historically the leading country of origin for travellers to Spain, is beginning a timid recovery after a year of numerous restrictions which have relegated it to third place in the rankings. The elimination since the start of the year of the `PCRs and the quarantines for British tourists returning home have had a direct impact on bookings from the UK, up 150% in the first 24 hours, according to Jet2.
Valuation: Positive news, although the impact is limited given that it has to do with expectations or bookings, which can be cancelled. The key to these expectations being met will be how this current (Covid) wave develops and that there a no new, more virulent variants, which can bring new restrictions. For the time being, we are maintaining our estimate that 2019 levels will be recovered in 2024-2025. Our preference in the sector is still IAG.