Bankinter: April CPI (final) confirms +4.1% year-on-year preliminary announcement from +3.3% in March. In month-on-month terms it remains at +0.6% m/m preliminary (from +0.4% previously). The groups most affecting the monthly rise are Footwear and Clothing, Accommodation and Leisure Services. While Housing declined due to lower gas and electricity prices.
Core CPI also remains at a preliminary +6.6% year-on-year and from +7.5% year-on-year previously.
Annual CPI rate
General and core rate. Percentage.
Core inflation confirms the improvement in April, largely due to the comparison effect from the +1.8% year-on-year rise in April 2022 and falls back below +7% year-on-year, something that has not happened since November 2022. The evolution of inflation is the key factor that will determine the pace of monetary policy. The moderation will be gradual over time, but also volatile given the impact of different second-round factors and base effects. Our estimates point to an average rate of +4.3% year-on-year in 2023 and +2.8% year-on-year in 2024.