The European banks in the periphery are the most sensitive to rate hikes; Caixbank, top pick

caixabank sunset

Morgan Stanley | The European banks are the most sensitive to rate movements. So pricing in a hike of 50 bps (in line with my macro) implies an over 9% upside for 2023 profits and an increase in ROTE of some 70 bps. This means a >10% upside on the sector valuation. Whatsmore, the sensitivity is even greater in the peripheral banks, particularly the Spanish, Italian and German lenders. For that reason, the best way to play the sensitivity to upwards movement in the yields is via Intesa (OW), Caixabank (OW) and Commerzbank (OW). Ask me for the list of all the European banks and their sensitivity to the movements of rates.