Bankinter | The International Energy Agency estimates that there will be global overproduction of oil over the next two years. Specifically, it estimates that world production will rise to 104.4Mbd in 2025 vs. 104.2Mbd previously. This supply contrasts with demand expected to reach 104.1Mbd vs. 104.3Mbd previously.
Analysis team’s view: Negative news for oil. Moreover, it reaffirms our opinion: oil prices will moderate in the coming years due to the economic slowdown, particularly in China (the world’s leading oil importer), global overproduction (especially from the US), the rise of alternative energies and greater global energy efficiency. As published in our Quarterly 2025 Strategy ReportQuarterly 2025, we estimate Brent at $68 by the end of 2025 and $65 by the end of 2026. The EIA estimates an average of $74 in 2025 and $66 in 2026.