Report by Morgan Stanley
Martijn Rats (Morgan Stanley analyst) highlights that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to improve this week. Outbound energy tanker transits are averaging 6 per day, compared with 2 per day observed the previous week. Inbound transits have also increased from 3 to 6 per day on average this week, although they remain well below pre-conflict levels , when both inbound and outbound transits stood at 25–30 vessels per day.
The seven-day moving average of crude oil shipments from Yanbu has fallen to approximately 2 million barrels per day (mb/d), its lowest level since March, with most of these shipments being rerouted northwards via the Sumed pipeline.
Similarly, the seven-day moving average of crude oil flows through BaM has fallen below 1 million barrels per day, although it notes that this figure could be revised upwards in the coming days, given that ‘dark’ transits take longer to be reflected in the data.
In the week ending Sunday 2 August, crude oil exports from the Middle East averaged 6.4 million barrels per day, representing a fall of 2.7 mb/d compared with the previous week, including alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz.
