Bankinter | Yesterday, the IMF revised its global GDP growth forecasts upwards for both 2025 to 3.0% year-on-year (from 2.8% in its April 2025 projection) and for 2026 to 3.1% (from 3.0% previously). By country, it made a general improvement in its forecasts for 2025 as tariff uncertainty cleared somewhat (US 1.9% versus 1.8% previously; EMU 1.0% versus 0.8% previously and Japan 0.7% versus 0.6% previously). The revision for China stood out, with expected growth of 4.8% (versus 4.0% previously). With regard to inflation, it maintained its estimates for developed economies in 2025 at 2.5% year-on-year and slightly lowered those for 2026 to 2.1% year-on-year (versus 2.2% previously).
Analysis team’s view: Good news. The improvement in its global growth projections reflects relative clarification on the tariff front following the recent agreements announced. In any case, we believe that central banks will wait for more visibility on the impact through price and growth indicators after the new tariffs come into force this Friday (1 August) before changing their monetary policies.
