Mexico’s economic growth more sustainable

Mexico is one of the Latin American economic powerhouses. More than 4,000 Spanish companies operate in the country, so its slow but sure convergence towards more sustainable growth rates–after having experienced spikes that were superior to the real potential–has a special interest for Spain. In the third quarter of the year, Mexico recorded a year on year 3.3 percent GDP versus a forecast 3.7 percent.

On the supply side, the services sector grew by 3.3 percent, industry by 3.6 percent and agriculture by 1.7 percent. Seasonally adjusted, the GDP expanded 0.45 percent quarter on quarter, in line with rates seen since mid-2009.

Also, it is worth noting that albeit the latest growth rates have been moderated, data from previous quarters were revised upwards–up to 4.9 percent and 4.4 percent for the first and second quarter of 2012. The aggregated expansion until September is now 4.2 percent, a figure consistent with an economy that starts to show some degree of relaxation.

The market consensus points at 3.8 percent GDP for the whole of the current year, and supports expectations of a 3.6 percent GDP for 2013.

As for the global economy, the main uncertainties are external and linked to a possible restrictions in international financing and a drop in capital flows triggered by sovereign debt tensions in the euro zone, conflicts in the Middle East, and the resolution of the US’ so-called fiscal cliff.