Santander’s stock price has recovered its highs prior to the summer of 2015, a period marked by deflationary pressures and political events. Alphavalue’s view is that the market is losing its fear of the bank which, up to now, has been underperforming its sector at a European level, particularly in the second half of 2015.
The US dollar was broadly stable over the past month, up against the euro and Japan’s yen but down against the New Zealand dollar and sterling. Elsewhere the Norwegian krone depreciated further, hitting new lows. The market appears to lack conviction in terms of the direction of the greenback.
Claudio Borio, chief economist at the Bank of International Payments (BIS) in Basel, believes that the question that differentiates what has been happening in continental Europe from what has been happening to some extent in the US, the UK and other economies, including Spain, is the extent to which the banking problems and the asset quality problems have been adressed head-on.
Benjamin Cole | The worldwide bond market tops $100 trillion, and we live in a world (as we are incessantly told) of global capital markets. All told, there is more than $217 trillion in global debt outstanding, and that figure rises by many trillions every year, reports the Institute of International Finance.
The central banks are still powerful. They can make the financial markets rise or plunge them into the doldrums. But the CBs need to scrutinise the financial system and its systemic risks more closely.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The increase in the size of the central banks’ balance sheet has without doubt been one of the untraditional measures of the financial crisis. But the president of the ECB has anticipated that probably at its next meeting in October a scheme will be worked out to progressively reduce the asset buying programme.
As long as there is no perfect equivalence between supply and demand, inflation will form part of our system, according to Robeco.
Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) | Most analysts and economists believe global growth will remain solid, despite political and geopolitical uncertainties, in the second half of 2017. Economics and corporate earnings will be the main drivers for the markets.
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The markets are discounting that in the next few months we will see greater certainty in monetary normalisation strategy. The start of the Fed’s balance sheet adjustment can also provide the rest of the central banks with information on the reversion of quantitative measures.