Inflation Is Not Dead, It’s Just Changed Course
As long as there is no perfect equivalence between supply and demand, inflation will form part of our system, according to Robeco.
Search Results for deflation
Global growth will remain solid in H2 despite political and geopolitical clouds
Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) | Most analysts and economists believe global growth will remain solid, despite political and geopolitical uncertainties, in the second half of 2017. Economics and corporate earnings will be the main drivers for the markets.
Monetary normalisation process remains on track
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The markets are discounting that in the next few months we will see greater certainty in monetary normalisation strategy. The start of the Fed’s balance sheet adjustment can also provide the rest of the central banks with information on the reversion of quantitative measures.
Wall Street Trapped In The Inability Of Yields
Many important assets have been trapped in broad trading ranges in recent years despite substantial political upheaval Some examples are the US Treasury 10-year yield which moved between 1.5-2.5% for 3 years or the German Bund 10-year yield between 0-1% for 3 year. According to BoAML, “this inability of yields, the US dollar & volatility to break out reflects the inability of the economic cycle to generate strong growth & inflation.”
Commodities, Isolated From The Reflation debate
The reflation trade that boosted a rally in global stockmarkets after Donald Trump’s victory has been put to the test in recent weeks with the inflation data failing to deliver the sought-after hard facts. However, commodities as an asset class have for some time been somewhat isolated from the reflation debate
Inflation Has Gone AWOL
Not really. The Fed hid it and forgot where it put it! They has raised rates three more times since. Inflation hasn´t gone up, as the neofisherians would have us believe, but there´s been no recession either.
ECB Needs To Build A Macroeconomic Narrative To Justify Upcoming Tapering
Tapering will come anyway, largely because of technical/ political constraints around QE. The ECB will still have to justify this with a macroeconomic narrative. This is what the ECB President has set out to do.However, experts at BoAML believe that what he said yesterday in Sintra central bankers summit is also consistent with a very slow exit.
Abenomics Is Working?
Benjamin Cole | Japan has put together a string of five straight quarters of real growth, along with declining unemployment and minute amounts of inflation. Some have recently termed Abenomics “a big success.”
Fixed Income: A Search For A Safe Haven Or A Question Of Yields?
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | At the end of the day, we have zero or negative real long-term interest rates. Why? The most simple answer has to do with the relation between supply and demand. And everything leads us to think that there is more demand than supply in the fixed income markets.
Controlling Inflation Is Still Not The Priority Of Central Banks
Despite quantitative easing and 3 years of more synchronised developed economy growth, it is not clear that inflation has really got any traction. Technology, globalisation, unemployment and changes in working practices have all contributed to the lack of inflationary pressures and still do.