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European economy 25th July 2021

Ban On Bank Dividends: A Strange Remedy With Severe Side Effects

Scander Bentchikou (Lazard Frères Gestion) | The restrictions on bank dividends, which have been in force since March 2020, ended on Friday. For banks and their shareholders, this is a relief. The measure, supposed to protect banks from the crisis, has done more harm than good. Technically, the banking sector’s dividends made a big comeback in spring 2021. However, the amounts paid remained well below their 2019 levels, given the still numerous restrictions. The return to normal will have to wait for the results of the banking stress tests, published on 31 July by the European Banking Authority.

Spanish economy 5th July 2021

20 Million People Working In Spain: A Real Opportunity?

Social Security registers a record high of 19,500,277 people affiliated in June in Spain, In addition, there are still 447,800 people affected by temporary layoffs. Infojobs conjectures that the trend of job creation will consolidate in the medium term. With Social Security enrollment at an all-time high and the European funds still to arrive, is a real opportunity 20 million people working in Spain?

Relevant News Item 23rd June 2021

We Need To Talk About Inflation

José Ramón Díez (CaixaBank Research) | While expected, the rise in inflation is causing discomfort due to the high levels that have been reached and the risk of it persisting at those levels for longer than desirable without investors being startled. The key is whether we are faced with an economy that is simply skidding around as it seeks to accelerate from 0 to 60 in a short time, in which case inertia will allow it to easily regain stability; or, on the contrary, overheating caused by an excessively expansive demand-focused policy could test the strength of the economic engine.

Spanish economy 17th May 2021

Spanish Tourism: The Beginning Of A Necessary Recovery

Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster (CaixaBank Research) | 2020 has now been left behind; a year that will be remembered in the tourism industry as the toughest in recent history. In 2021, the fight against the pandemic continues and restrictions on movement and trade are still preventing normal economic activity, hitting tourism-dependent businesses particularly hard. However, the roll-out of the vaccines will provide a turning point once immunity is achieved among the population most at risk. Our projections point to a strong recovery in the sector during the second half of the year, resulting in tourism GDP growing by 80% annually, once again becoming one of the driving forces for the Spanish economy.

Spanish economy 3rd May 2021

Taking Stock Of The «Intermediate» Sectors In Spain

Oriol Carreras Baquer (CaixaBank Research | We are all well aware that the impact of the pandemic has varied widely from sector to sector. Those linked to tourism and leisure have suffered disproportionately. At the other end of the spectrum, some sectors, such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, or public administrations, education and health, have seen their activity increase during the pandemic. In this article, we focus on all the other sectors: the ones which, while having been dealt a heavy blow, have suffered less than those hardest hit. We will call them the «intermediate» sectors.

Spanish economy 8th April 2021

Spain: Economy Better, Politics Worse

Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The crisis caused by the coronavirus, which has been going on for more than a year now, is far from being overcome. But perhaps the worst thing is that a latent pessimism – unjustified but real – all too often obscures data and realities that lean towards a cautious and reasoned optimism. If we add to this the political turmoil, we find ourselves – more so in Spain, but not only here – faced with an extreme confusion that alters reality.

Spanish economy 6th April 2021

Spain: 59,000 Fewer Unemployed in March

T.C. | The number of registered unemployed in Spain fell by 59,149 people in March (-1.5%), its largest decline in this month since 2015, according to data published on Tuesday by the Ministry of Labour. With this decline in unemployment, which puts an end to five consecutive months of increases, the total number of unemployed reached 3,949,640 at the end of March.

In the World, World economy 21st February 2021

Tech Exodus: Is Silicon Valley in Trouble?

Hans-Georg Betz | At the end of last year, Elon Musk announced that he was going to leave Silicon Valley to find greener pastures in Texas. To be more precise, Austin, Texas. Austin is not only the capital of the Lone Star State. It also happens to be an oasis of liberalism in a predominantly red state. Recently, there has been a lot of talk about the “tech exodus” from Silicon Valley. Michael Lind, the influential social analyst and pundit who also happens to teach at UT, has preferred to speak of a “Texodus,” as local patriotism obligates.

European politics 9th February 2021

Brexit: From Brothers To Distant Cousins

CaixaBank Research (Álvaro Leandro | What consequences the agreement for the UK exit from the EU will end up having remains to be seen and will depend on how trade and foreign investment between the UK and Europe evolve, as well as London’s prevalence as an international financial hub. In Europe, the impact will be mixed across the different economies, depending on their trade and financial links with the United Kingdom.

Spanish economy 4th January 2021

2021: Notable But Incomplete Recovery Of The Spanish Economy

CaixaBank Research (Oriol Carreras Baquer and Javier García Arenas | We expect growth in economic activity to pick up in Q2, when the most vulnerable people should have been immunised and international travel can recover more strongly, with growth in the Spanish economy reaching around 6.0% in 2021. While the pace of recovery is high, this would still leave the economy 6.2% below the pre-crisis GDP level. In fact, we do not expect the economy to return to pre-crisis levels until 2023.

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