Bankinter | The European Commission (EC) announces a proposal to revise steel import quotas in Europe. It reduces current quotas by 50% and raises the tariff to 50% (from 25%) above a certain quota (18.3Mtn). The aim is to protect the European steel industry in a context of global overcapacity. The EU seeks to prevent cheap steel from countries such as China and India from being diverted to Europe following…
Renta 4 | Much like Acerinox, Arcelormittal is approaching historic resistance levels of €32, corresponding to a recurring peak zone since 2012. At the beginning of this year, both stocks threatened to jump above this level, but the corrections in February thwarted the attempt. Acerinox, failing to beat February’s highs of €11.65, has managed to consolidate prices above historical resistance levels at €10.20. Arcelormittal has yet to comfortably beat the…
Morgan Stanley | Our analyst Alain Gabriel highlights two pieces of news from the steel sector that are delaying decarbonisation targets. ArcelorMittal has announced that it is putting its decarbonisation plans on hold at two German plants (Bremen and Eisenhüttenstadt) given the energy policy and regulatory environment. In addition, Arcelor has confirmed that it will not be able to meet its 2030 emissions intensity targets. It justifies this on several…
Renta 4 | Nippon Steel finally acquires US Steel for $14.1 billion. This transaction means that ArcelorMittal (MTS) will acquire 50% of the joint venture it had with Nippon Steel in Calvert. Arcelor will pay $1. Nippon Steel will receive compensation of $900 million in cash and debt cancellation. The plant will be renamed ArcelorMittal Calvert. AM expects this acquisition to increase the group’s net debt by $1.3 billion and…
Banc Sabadell: Trump will impose an additional 25% tariff on steel imports which would leave the tariff burden on these products at 50%. Assessment: Negative news given that we understand that although at first the company stated that the impact of the tariffs could be positive, the fall in the dollar, together with the fall in demand linked to the uncertainty, would be weighing on the business. Thus, despite its…
Bankinter | US President D. Trump announced that he will raise tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports from all countries from 25% to 50% as of Wednesday 4 June. The 25% tariff was set on 12 March. Analysis team’s view: This increase comes days after a US International Trade Tribunal called into question reciprocal tariffs, but not sectoral tariffs. This new sectoral tariff increase complicates ongoing negotiations with many…
Renta 4 | The US government is expected to give the green light to Nippon Steel’s “buyout” of US Steel. The deal could be announced tomorrow, Friday, during a visit by Trump to Pittsburgh. Many details of the deal are still unknown, although it is clear that the government will impose severe restrictions on Nippon. Among them, the government would maintain a “golden share”, a remedy sometimes used by European…
Deutsche Bank | The most pessimistic fears have been mitigated, but US tariffs have created great uncertainty about steel demand, given the complexity of breaking down the impact on end markets. In our new baseline scenario we reflect this situation (although without reaching a full-blown recession) and we cut our assumptions about demand and prices in the sector, reducing our EBITDA forecasts for 2026 by 7% on average. We also…
Bankinter | 4Q2024 EBITDA better by Joint Venture. Raises dividend and expects demand to improve in 2025. Tariff risk and overcapacity in the sector remain. Key figures compared to the company’s consensus for 4Q24: Revenues $14,714m (+1.1% year-on-year, -3.2% year-on-year); EBITDA $1,654m (versus +13.8% year-on-year and +4.6% year-on-year) versus $1,529m estimate (margin stood at 11.2% from 10.4% 3Q2024). NAB -$390m (versus $2,966m in 4Q 2023 and +$287m in 3Q 2024)…
Morgan Stanley | Alain Gabriel summarises the various changes in the European market environment that we could see during the year. Starting with the review of import quotas, which expire in June 2026, and whose review ends on 31 March 2025. Alain believes there is potential for a reduction in quotas, implementation of quotas on an individual level and/or tariff increases. An anti-dumping investigation of HRCs from Egypt, India, Japan…