Link Securities | The ratings agency Moody´s downgraded its rating outlook for the Spanish banking sector as a whole from “positive” to “stable”, as a consequence of the banks´ slowing reduction of non-performing loans (NPLs).
The agency expects fewer disinvestments in 2019 than registered in 2018, when banks accelerated the sanitisation of their balance sheets.
The Bank of Spain will maintain of the counter-cyclical buffer at 0%, arguing that (a) the credit-GDP gap continues in negative territory, and (b) the Spanish economy still shows a remarkable strength as the GDP increased by 0, 7% t/t in 1Q19.
Alphavalue | The ECB´s reflationary strategy has caused doubts among investors about the business plans of Spanish banks, in particular Caixabank, articulated in terms of the improvement in the net interest margin over the expected future rise in interest rates (which, incidentally, we do not expect any time soon).
Morgan Stanley | We lower profit estimates for Spanish banks at an average 4.6-5% for 2020-2021 given the sensitivity of these to a further flattening of the rate curve as a result of a more dovish ECB.
Banca March | The ECB announced other limitations on liquidity that will make it difficult for peripheral banks to access the new TLTRO III.
Nuria Álvarez (Renta 4) | Banco Sabadell´s Q119 results showed how the increase in volumes had allowed it to moderate the deterioration in the margin of interests. We come to an objective price of 1.56€/share. Overweight.
Bankinter | The rate of Spanish banks´non-performing loans fell in March to 5.73% (-1.07 pp m/m), the lowest level since 2010. It is good news for the sector, which confirms the improvement in the credit quality indices observed in recent years. Bad debt is therefore distancing itself from the highs of 2013 when it reached 13.61% in the middle of the economic crisis in various Eurozone countries.
Morgan Stanley | Alvaro Serrano upgrades his recommendation for Banco Sabadell (SAB) to Overweight and the objective price from 1.10 to 2.35 euros. Sabadell has performed 10% worse than the sector YTD and Alvaro thinks that there is greater visibility in both profits and capital, which should provoke an increase in value.
Bankinter | Bankia has presented its first quarter results (Q12019). We highlight the principal figures compared to the consensus: Interest margins: 526 M€ (-4,7% vs 502 M€ expected); Gross margin: 813 M€ (-13,3%; vs 814 M€ expected); Operational margin: 357 M€ (-16,6%; vs 355 M€ esperado); Annual net profit: 205 M€ (-10,8% vs -40 M€ in Q4 18 vs 196M€ expected).
Banco Santander revealed its 1Q19 numbers. Intermediation margin (NII or margin of interest) € 8.68 + 3% yoy <€ 8.75 bn € e cons. Attributed net profit is 1.84 bn € -10.41% yoy against the 1.83 bn € estimated by the consensus, after a net charge of € 108 M for restructuring costs in the United Kingdom and Poland and assets sale. Ordinary profit has grown in seven of its ten main markets.