I said it a short time ago: the institutional campaign against the UK referendum on June 23rd has been embarrassing. From Her Majesty’s government to that of the EU, the Bank of England (clearly overstepping its line of duty), and including the vailed threats that the world was going to end and Great Britain would fall into a chasm in history.
One month ahead of the referendum on EU membership, polls show no clear winner. The campaigners aiming to anchor the UK in Europe cannot match the warmongering messages from those eager to steer the country away from the continent.
Natixis AM | The upcoming UK referendum on EU membership appears to be a knife’s edge contest. Although financial markets have already felt some impact, if the vote produces an “out” result, global markets face additional turbulence this summer.
Multinationals such as Airbus or Aviva Investors are arguing in favour of the ‘In’ vote, warning that a possible Brexit would push the UK into recession before year-end.
James Alexander via Historinhas | The chickens continue to come home to roost for the Bank of England and its masters at the UK Treasury. The pathetic attempt of the a UK government minister to blame Brexit worries for the UK economic slowdown was truly breath-taking in its cheek.
Time is moving on. After the more than satisfactory agreement reached by Prime Minister David Cameron after renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the European Union, the countdown to the June 23rd referendum has begun. And as happened with the Scottish referendum, the British government is ready to bring out all the big guns.
The Chancellor’s latest Budget saw the cumulative forecast for government borrowing over the next five years revised up by close to GBP 40bn. This reflects both weaker cyclical growth and also the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) taking a gloomier view on UK trend productivity growth.
Brexit supporters do not need to make any noise. They have been decades using the EU as a scapegoat for their problems of excessive regulation, arbitrary taxation, lack of transparency… Now it’s Cameron who must prove the opposite.
Great Britain’s exit from the European Union could be the straw that breaks Europe’s back. So heads of state and government have worked hard on devising a new tailor-made suit for the UK.
UBS | The focus in the Brexit debate is often on the UK’s relatively large current account deficit. This is understandable, as a period in which Foreign Direct Investment was harder for the UK to attract in a post-Brexit world would likely imply the current account would need to correct.