Until the tense situation in the country is resolved, we believe the Spanish stock market will continue to suffer more than its European peers. As an example of this, in the week up until October 4, Spanish equity funds lost $229 million, according to market data firm EPFR.
A few days ago, a week ago, the unilateral and seditious declaration of independence in Catalonia seemed to be on the cards, almost inevitable in fact. But the King’s speech last Tuesday and the demonstrations in Barcelona and other cities involving both Spaniards and Catalans have changed the dynamic of the process.
Carax Alphavalue | Mrs May’s talk of energy price controls sent the UK sector into a downward spin. The Catalan mess also pushed sharply down the Spanish utilities’ share prices. The only surprise is that it took three days for markets to react to the Spanish risks.
Since the segregation process in Catalonia began, one got the feeling that it would be a serious risk to our country’s economic stability. Spain would pay a high price for the loss of its main economic region, which accounts for about 20% of GDP.
Link Securities | Despite the ongoing uncertainty in the wake of last Sunday’s referendum in Catalonia, investors returned to the Spanish markets yesterday, buying up both equities and bonds. The main driver behind this renewed interest is the decision by top Catalan banks, Sabadell and Caixabank, to move their headquarters away from their home base.
The Catalan government and its parliamentary majority have gone the whole hog to achieve their final objective: a unilateral declaration of independence which brings the Spanish government to their knees to accept their requests with very favourable conditions to construct this new state, whatever it takes.
Carax Alphavalue | Up until last Sunday’s events in Catalonia, Spain’s economic recovery was well discounted in market terms, Carax Alphavalue says. But after the Catalan government’s “pretence poll” and the central government’s “heavy-handed” response, investors view Spanish stocks as a more risky bet and less of a buy opportunity for now.
Shares in biotech company Oryzon Genomics continued their advance today, after the company said on Tuesday that it plans to move its headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid.
At the moment, the biggest losers in the Ibex 35 index after Sunday’s referendum vote in Catalonia are the banks, particularly the Catalan lenders. Both Sabadell and CaixaBank have acknowledged that if independence were to happen, they would move their headquarters to another autonomous region in Spain. In this way they would keep their access to the ECB’s liquidity and their clients would remain under the protection of the national and European Deposit Guarantee Fund. But perhaps it’s too soon to ring the alarm bells: while the Ibex dropped, other European bourses rose. This shows that Catalonia is still far from becoming a systemic risk for the EU.
A British newspaper asked this question this morning and it’s very pertinent. What has been happening in Catalonia recently puts Spain, a member of the EU, at risk of failure. Essentially what has taken place in Catalonia is the violation of the constitutional order and the rule of law.