China

coronavirus china

China to open faster than expected but with risk of reversal given low vaccination rate

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Uncertainty about China’s growth prospects next year is unprecedently high. Most importantly such uncertainty hinges more than ever on a single issue: the speed – and smoothness – of China’s opening-up from zero-Covid policies after three years of intermittent lockdowns. The speed of opening-up is key because mobility is closely correlated with China’s consumption and economic activity, more generally. In fact, we have estimated that, in…


china happy

Chinese consumers – life beyond Singles’ Day

Nicholas Yeo (abrdn) | The world’s biggest annual shopping event is not America’s Black Friday, it’s China’s ‘Singles Day’, held on 11.11, as the date symbolises both those who are single and those who have newly formed a couple. Across the country, people treat themselves and each other to presents, parties and shopping splurges. The unstoppable rise of the Chinese consumer means the celebration has become the world’s largest online…


XI Biden

Biden, Xi focus on Taiwan and forget about Ukraine

Alicia García Herrero * (Natixis) | It is hard to imagine a more momentous meeting than the one Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping just held on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty meeting in Bali. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence certainly made things easier, as it opened the door for the G20 communiqué to address the Ukraine war, but it is not going to go beyond a compromise…


Belt and Road at five years

Will the Belt and Road Initiative be another casualty of the pandemic?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) *| China’s grand infrastructure development strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has suffered as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, at least when measured by the amount of funds lent or invested by China in BRI projects. This decrease in funding is one of the most visible signs of China’s increasing isolationism and worsening global image. President Xi announced China’s most important soft-power strategy on…


China EU trade deal

EU Should Demonstrate Unity toward China

The ifo Institute has called for a show of unity toward China. In recent years, the trade imbalance between Germany and China has tipped significantly in China’s favor, but the same is not true for EU-China trade relations, according to an ifo study. “For this reason, it is questionable whether Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s trip to China will on its own be enough to send the right message. It would have…


Xi Jinping

China Briefing

Allianz GI | The market reaction to the conclusion of China’s Party Congress is telling. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (a gauge of key China stocks listed in Hong Kong) fell more than 7% on the first day of trading after the Congress. The CSI 300 (onshore China’s equivalent of the S&P 500) as well as the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges saw a far more muted reaction.1…


Xi Jinping

China’s Party Congress: doubling down on the direction of travel

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | After months of preparation and concerning sentiment stemming from a deteriorating external environment, Covid-related restrictions and the plummeting real estate sector, the Communist Party’s 20th Congress has started with President Xi Jinping delivering the work report. Below are some key take-aways: 1. Dynamic zero Covid policies remain in place, sealed by the success in saving lives during the past few years. No clear exit strategy has been…


Arcelor Mittal

China: Overcapacity Remains A Problem In The Steel Sector

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | About 700 small steel mills, with 140 million tons of steel capacity deemed sub-standard, have shut down since 2016. Another 150 million tons of inefficient capacity at larger firms has also gone. However, steel production continues to climb, outpacing demand


photovoltaic energy in Spain

China’s Three Gorges Buys 619 MW Of PV In Spain

Three Gorges (CTG) has reached an agreement to acquire a portfolio of 619 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic assets from Nexwell Power in what is its largest transaction to date in Spain in terms of capacity, according to market sources quoted today by the newspaper Expansión. Details of the price have not yet been disclosed, but sources suggest that the value of the deal is in excess of EUR 200 million.CTG…


US elections, Joe Biden

Xi, Biden Switching Strategies For Dominance

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | US President Joe Biden’s long-awaited trip to Asia got off to a poor start, after ASEAN leaders’ official visit to the White House saw hardly any relevant policy decisions, and Biden’s stingy pitch of $150 million to ASEAN economies. Based on that example and Biden’s difficult political situation at home, the stakes for his trip to Asia were low. But reality has proved the pessimism…