rates hike

Testing the rate-hike scenario

By Sreekala Kochugovindan, Anando Maitra (Barclays) | History highlights the importance of the business cycle in determining the effect of rising rates on asset returns, a topic we discussed in depth in Scenarios for a shifting bond landscape. We examined US data since 1925 and selected episodes where US Treasuries sold off by more than 5% in one year. The results were pretty mixed, with equity returns ranging between plus and minus 50% and providing no consistent pattern. 

Germany and the euro

Euro’s depreciation gives Draghi a respite

MADRID | By Francisco López | The ECB’s measures since June have been oriented to fight the ghost of deflation, increasing the Eurozone’s economic activity and, in an indirect manner, managing the euro’s depreciation. For the moment Mr Draghi has failed in the first two goals, although he has succeeded in the third one. The euro is plummeting –which is good news.

Commodity Indexes

Markets worried over weak global growth

MADRID | By Francisco López | Up to this point, investors had scarcely listened to economists’ warnings about world economic stagnation, but in the last number of days the situation has changed as commodities’ prices dropped, with debt and equity markets beginning to exert some pressure. 


Commodities: volatility or the end of a supercycle?

By Gustavo Matías | Despite a 30% drop between January and June, fundamentals are betting on a tight offer of commodities, but hot money is fleeing. Paper pulp prices are the strongest at their highs, energy refuses to lower down, and drinks, food and minerals are plummeting.


The Enduring Glow of Gold

BEIJING |  Caixin Magazine | A ripple of skepticism recently hit prices of the yellow metal, but gold remains the ultimate hedge on inflation, as former Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economist for Asia Pacific Andy Xie explains. The global economy has already entered into stagflation with a growth rate of 2 percent and inflation at 3 percent. The inflation rate is likely to rise above 4 percent in 18 months while the growth rate will remain stuck in the same range. With inflation twice as high as the growth rate, the global economy will slip deeper into stagflation.

oil barrel

Widespread drops among commodities

By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | Oil intensified its correction and, between 20 April and 21 March fell by 10.7%, reaching 109.10 dollars per barrel (Brent quality, for one-month deliveries). Crude was therefore 1.1% above its level at the start of 2012 but 2.1% below its level of a year ago, which will pull down April and May's CPI in most economies. Oil prices confirm that they are following…