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The paradox of the ECB long-term refinancing operations

In Europe 12th September 2018

ECB’s Meeting: Draghi Will Not Stop To Remind That The Purchases Programme Is Flexible

The ECB’s meeting next Thursday will serve to prolong the continuist tone and will be characterised by an appearance by Draghi in which he will continue with his message of prudence. The Italian will also recall that the ammunition remains ready and will insist on the roll-over of matured assets in the portfolio linked to QE, at the same time as again deferring raising interests rates, signalling summer 2019 as a posible date.

 

The debt of Rajoy and Sanchez

Spanish economy 16th July 2018

The Debt of Rajoy and Sanchez

From 2019 it is possible that Spain will have difficulties financing its public debt, which is definitely not only the official figure of 98.3% of GDP. Rajoy’s increase of this debt by €649 billion has been financed at very low interest rates, thanks to the ECB’s quantitative easing. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez has announced substantial spending increases, which will inevitably increase debt in 2019.

macron sanchez

In Europe 26th June 2018

Spain should position itself on Europe’s main issues

Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | From the start the new Spanish government has voiced its staunch pro-European stance. A most welcome move when other core countries drift apart, either through complete withdrawal like the UK or proving a real nuisance like Italy. Not to mention some Eastern Member States waging an open rebellion by snubbing key democratic principles enshrined in the Union Treaty.

The paradox of the ECB long-term refinancing operations

In Europe 16th June 2018

The QE Is Very Probably Dead

The ECB’s chairman endorsed the optimistic staff forecast enough to justify the end of QE for December 2018 and then spent the rest of the press conference insisting on the downside risks. This was the only way that BoAML’ s analysts find to deliver what they think about Mario Draghi’s main challenge: making sure that there would not be any continuum in the market perceptions between the end of the net purchases and a brisk pace of normalisation on rates.

ECB stimulus package

In Europe 11th June 2018

ECB: Ending The QE Chapter With Italy “On Its Own”

The ECB could announce a short taper to December current week. The central bank has to be consistent if QE is ending this year and, hence, according to BoAML’s analysts it has to send a reaffirming message on three criteria: convergence, confidence, resilience.

spanish GDP

Spanish economy 24th May 2018

Going Around In Circles With Budgetary Stability

For a long time, Spain has had a “debt pending” in terms of budgetary stability. And, for the time being, the current scenario leads us to think that balancing the public finances is a difficult objective to achieve in the medium-term. Added to that problem is the high level of government debt.

Germany will have to accept greater responsibility within the EU and in the world

Interviews 10th May 2018

“The “Schism” Between East And West Is More Dangerous Than The One Between North And South”

Ana Fuentes | “The European leaders will also have to deal with insuring and enlarging a multilateral open system for trade, threatened not only by the US policies, which will lead to Germany having to accept more responsibility within the EU and in the world – and this includes not only the fields of economy and finance,” says Joachim Bitterlich, who was advisor to former Chancellor Helmut Kohl and is currently Professor at the ESCP School in Paris.

Figures for consumption

In Europe 9th May 2018

Europeans Purchasing Power is Rising; Consumption will Recover

Francisco Vidal | The demand for credit from households continues to rise in the EMU and, in particular, consumer credit. Entries for lending of M3, once the figures have been seasonally-adjusted and the effect of certain changes in the perimeter have been factored in, showed that loans to households are growing at a rate of 3.0% annually, led by those earmarked for consumption (+ 7% annually)