elections

In Spain 28th June 2023

Implications of the July 23rd election for Spanish utilities

Morgan Stanley| With the general elections just around the corner (July 23rd), Rob Pulleyn has published a report in which he discusses the possible outcomes of the elections (and therefore possible energy policies) and their implications for utilities with exposure to Spain. Overall, he believes that the impact will be significant, but in his baseline scenario, he believes that Spanish utilities will generally do well as a result of the…

Spanish Politics 26th June 2023

Sánchez’s return of 3.5% to whoever lends him money for July 23 campaign is higher than that of Treasury Bills

The PSOE activated its microcredit campaign on 12 June and by Friday had already received €2.7 million . The party has improved the conditions it has already offered in the past, since, in the two previous campaigns for the 2019 general elections, the interest generated was 2% and 2.5% respectively. The amount raised by the campaign for the April 2019 elections was €2,454,200, which was doubled for the general elections…

In Spain, Spanish Politics 5th June 2023

Spain: everyone will agree with everyone

Fernando González Urbaneja | The aim of politicians is to achieve power, to whatever degree possible, but power. And the laws of democracy are conditioned by arithmetic, that is, to achieve the sum of votes that will give greater or lesser access to power. These are two principles that we are going to see in action over the coming weeks in the city councils and autonomous governments that are in…

In Spain, Spanish Politics 2nd June 2023

Who is more like Trump, Feijóo or Sánchez?

Fernando González Urbaneja| If we have to choose the highlights of Pedro Sánchez’s leadership trajectory, one of them would have to be the “No is No” (what part of this has not been understood?) It was his entry through the big door of political decisions by not enabling a new government after the first elections of 2016 with a tactical abstention, which mathematically blocked the forming of a parliamentary majority…

In Spain, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 31st May 2023

Spain: early elections potentially advantageous for economic prospects

Jakob Suwalski (Scope Ratings) | Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to call early elections is potentially advantageous for Spain’s economic outlook insofar as it should prevent the government from losing six months of valuable time to determine long-term policy goals, even if it means forming a coalition or minority government. This timeframe allows for reforms to be implemented and the country’s fiscal and economic challenges to be addressed. However, the…

In Spain, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 31st May 2023

23-07-23: translating results of municipals to generals is an inconsistent exercise

Fernando González Urbaneja | Quite a few (including two national newspapers) have applied the arithmetic template of Sunday’s results to a general election with a result that would be favourable to the grand coalition of the left/nationalists, headed and sponsored by Pedro Sánchez. In this case the PP would be the most voted party with 140 deputies (with VOX in retreat below 20 seats) while the PSOE would remain as…

In Spain, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 30th May 2023

July 23rd: The sooner the better

Fernando Gonzéz Urbaneja | The expectation of a very tough six-month election campaign weighed on Sánchez’s conscience throughout the evening after the evidence of Sunday’s results. This explains why bringing forward the elections is tactical and opportunistic (in political logic), and also why Feijóo began his speech in front of the cameras with the words: “the sooner the better”. Better for the incumbent who defends the results of November 2019,…

In Spain, Relevant News Item, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 29th May 2023

Sánchez brings forward general elections to July 23 after debacle in regional and municipal polls

The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has announced that the general election will be brought forward to next July 23 after the electoral defeat suffered this Sunday by the PSOE in the regional and municipal polls. The head of the Executive has assumed this Sunday’s electoral results “in first person” and his response is that this means “submitting the popular mandate to the popular will”, as he has stated…

World economy, World politics 31st October 2022

Lula Wins Brazil’s Presidential Election

Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil on Sunday with 50.84% of the votes, compared to 49.16% for the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, with 99.10% of the ballot boxes counted. The leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), who governed between 2003 and 2010, will once again occupy the presidency of an extremely divided Brazil from 1 January 2023 and for…

Brazil elections: Whoever wins, debt reigns

World economy 14th October 2022

Brasil: A Tight Presidential Run-Off Election Among High Inflation And Fiscal Policy Issues

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | On October 2, general elections were held in Brazil in order to elect all seats in the lower house of Congress, one-third of seats in the Senate, all 27 state governors and the president. The race for president will be decided in a run-off on October 30, featuring incumbent far-right Jair Bolsonaro and left-wing former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. In a polarised first…

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