Castilla Y León: A Little More Complicated

Fernando González Urbaneja | Elections in Castilla y León: 31 seats for PP, 28 seats for PSOE, 13 for VOX, 3 for Unión del Pueblo Leonés, 3 for Soria Ya, 1 for Podemos Izquierda Unida, 1 seat for Ciudadanos and 1 seat for Por Ávila… The Castilla y León voters have not left any of the candidates happy, with the exception of VOX. It has consolidated its position as third…

germany reinvented

The EU After The German Elections: More Realpolitik?

European Views | The way the EU appears on the world stage, where it all too often seems weak, uncoordinated and overly moralising in its approach to world affairs. Germany’s long-time chancellor Merkel has played a key role in this. Throughout 16 years, Berlin has helped transform the EU into an ineffective paper tiger that styles itself as a superpower, yet that is frequently proving unable to deal effectively with hard geopolitical questions – from securing its borders to dealing with China. What is really needed is a new approach to EU foreign policy, especially at a time when German voters’ interest in foreign policy and EU affairs is at its lowest in years.

Today’s German election is likely to be one of the most open contests in decades

Germany After Merkel: What’s Next?

Azad Zangana (Schroders) | Today’s is a major milestone election for Germany, and many will be keeping a close eye on the outcome. In any case, though we should see the results soon, negotiations to form the next coalition are likely to take several months given the potential wide range of combinations on offer. The new chancellor may not be inaugurated before 2022.


German Election Guide

Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | Germans elect a new Bundestag on Sunday, which will elect Angela Merkel’s successor. It is the first time since 1983 that a sitting chancellor isn’t seeking reelection. If the polls are right, Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats will lose power to the center-left Social Democrats for the first time since 2005. Here is everything you need to know. Bottom lines The Social Democrats (SPD) are projected…

Angela Merkel

Germany At The End Of The Merkel Era: The Next Coalition To Inherit An Economy Not Fully Recovered

Bruno Cavalier (ODDO BHF) | In a few weeks’ time, Angela Merkel will cease to be Chancellor, a position she has held since 2005. Polls show that the three main contenders to succeed her are tied. Despite Germany’s good performance in the first Covid-19 wave, successive waves of contagions brought new restrictions in early 2021, delaying the recovery. Also, Germany clearly suffers from its overexposure to the automotive industry, which is 25 points below normal.

Merkel Laschet

Laschet Is Dragging Germany’s Christian Democrats Down

Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | It’s too soon to tell you I told you so. The German election is still a month away. But it is starting to look like the ruling Christian Democrats made a mistake nominating Armin Laschet, the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, for the chancellorship. Laschet would succeed Angela Merkel, who is not seeking a fifth term after sixteen years in power. I argued in December…

Pedro mascarilla españita

Spain: Early Elections Due To Coalition Exhaustion?

Fernando González Urbaneja | The first reaction of the socialists after the Madrid elections was to distance themselves, almost indifferent, with the argument that Madrid is not Spain. That was the end of it. But it did not hold water. Third in Galicia, opposition in Catalonia, minority in the Basque Country, opposition in Andalusia… and third in Madrid. So much for a governing party. And too much to sustain the…


Bond Markets Warm Up To The Approval Of The US $1,9 Tr Stimulus Package In Early March

Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Joe Biden’s proposed $1,9 Tr stimulus bill will run its race in Senate next week, as House Democrats passed the legislation on Friday. The package includes $1400 direct payments to most Americans, a $400 weekly jobless benefit and an extension of unemployment insurance programs to a larger share of eligible candidates. The bill also includes $20bn for Covid-19 vaccinations, $50bn for testing and $350bn into state and local aids. The plan also aims to hike the federal minimum wage to $15/hour by 2025, although this particular amendment hangs on a thin balance.

USA reflation

Reflationary Thesis Strengthens As Democrats Win Slim Senate Majority

Salman Ahmed (Fidelity International) | Georgia run-off elections on 6 January handed the Democratic party effective control of the US Senate with a slim majority that will limit the ambitions of a Biden presidency. However, this will be able to boost fiscal spending to help the economy recover from Covid-19 and grow by more than 7% in 2021. This further strengthens the reflationary thesis, but means a potential taper tantrum is top of the list of factors we are watching. 

Biden Trump Battle

Biden Gains Advantage, Trump Doesn’t Give Up… The Court Battle Is Guaranteed

The election count is continuing and the chances of the Democrat candidate reaching the White House are increasing. Although with a much tighter result than the polls predicted, Joe Biden wins in the key states of Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as being ahead in Arizona and Nevada. The latest recount gives Biden 264 and Trump 214. Despite the result, Donald Trump is announcing he will file several complaints in these key states, demanding new recounts and threatening to go to the Supreme Court.