France Faces its Own National Concerns
Luis Alcaide (Capital Madrid) | Next Sunday, the 15th, municipal elections will be held. To what extent will national problems, such as the controversial reform of pensions by decree, influence the results?
elections
US 2020 Election Outcomes You’re Not Watching
This article focuses on the 2020 US Election, which formally kicks off next week with the February 3 Iowa Caucuses. In this piece, experts at BNY Mellon Daniel Tenengauzer and John Velis explore how markets may react as political events unfold in the run-up to November 3.
UK election: Conservative majority is increasingly likely
If the Conservatives return to power with a large majority in the UK elections, UBP analysts anticipate the new government will engage in a large scale fiscal stimulus and UK assets will experience a relief rally.
Rating news sources can help limit the spread of misinformation
VV. AA. (The Conversation) | Online misinformation has significant real-life consequences, such as measles outbreaks and encouraging racist mass murderers. Online misinformation can have political consequences as well. The problem of disinformation and propaganda misleading social media users was serious in 2016, continued unabated in 2018 and is expected to be even more severe in the coming 2020 election cycle in the U.S.
A weak USD may signal a shift to non-US equities
As Peter Kinsella, UBP’s global FX strategist highlights, the US dollar bull market has likely run its course as we enter 2020. Indeed, since 1995, long-cycle inflections in the US dollar exchange range have coincided with long-cycle under/outperformance of US equities relative to non- US equities.
Spain heads for a bumpy ride
J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Sánchez-led Cabinet will lack any steady support in Parliament for implementing a reasonable policy line.
Spain election: a sad and brief socialist victory
Juan Luis Manfredi (The Conversation) | The elections in Spain do not represent a second round nor a referendum or a presidential test. They cannot be compared to those of last April 28 despite the strategic over-action of political leaders. The socialist party had too much confidence on their advisors, the CIS public research institute poll and a social media-based campaign.
Spain without a government
Fernando G. Urbaneja | If governance in Spain was difficult before and leaders apparently lacked the ability of forming stable alliances, now the picture is even more complicated. All leaders except far right party VOX and nationalists have failed, although no one admits it nor takes responsibility.
Spain and Catalonia’s ratings depend on resolving the political impasse
Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) | The imprisonment of the Catalan separatist leaders has exacerbated regional tensions, with potentially profound political consequences, although the short term economic impact of the latest separatist protests will be limited.
Elections in Spain and the “Syndrome of the Leopard”
Fernando G. Urbaneja | The political parties’ electoral strategies will be revealed this week in the televised debates scheduled for Monday night (the five party leaders, shown by various channels) and Thursday night. Thursday night’s debate, the so-called women’s debate, is organised by La Sexta, the main channel for the left. To these two debates must be added the weather, in other words the turnout, which could cause problems for all the candidates, with theories for every taste. All want to mobilise their sleeping or fed up voters on November 10, all fear that a low turn out will prejudice them; and a rainy Sunday is not a day for voting.